Determinants of Bilateral REDD+ Cooperation Recipients in Kyoto Protocol Regime and Their Implications in Paris Agreement Regime

Abstract

A cooperative approach for REDD+ between developing and developed countries can be a sound means to achieve national and global mitigation targets. To accomplish the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of countries and the global 2 degrees C climate target more effectively, it is necessary to explore the coordination options, based on the understanding of bilateral REDD+ cooperation. This study explains the current status of bilateral REDD+ cooperation and investigates determinants affecting REDD+ recipient decisions of donor countries, by analyzing bilateral REDD+ arrangements, which has been promoted for 10 years under the the Kyoto Protocol regime from 2006 until 2015. The results show that Norway and Japan supported more than half of the total financial pledges for bilateral REDD+ projects for 10 years. Out of 87 REDD+ recipients, four countries-Brazil, India, Indonesia, and China-accounted for more than half of the 10-year financial pledges. Approximately 78% of total financing was found to be concentrated in the top 10 recipients. The aid darlings and orphans problem, the concentration of bilateral supports in a few developing countries and the exclusion of several developing countries from the recipient selection process, which has been discussed in ODA researches, was also observed. Applying a shared frailty model, recipient need, recipient merit, and donor interest was found to be the main determinants of donors' REDD+ recipient decision. Donor interest and recipient merit were found to have more significant effects on the decision than recipient need. A balanced two-track approach is further required, in which, along with the bilateral REDD+ cooperation in the REDD+ darling countries, international organizations and multilateral funds for REDD+ need to increase financial accessibility, including the result-based compensation system for the REDD+ orphan countries.