Seasonal Prediction of Korean Surface Temperature in July and February Based on Arctic Sea Ice Reduction br

Abstract

We examined potential seasonal prediction of the Korean surface temperature using the relationships between the Arctic Sea Ice Area (SIA) in autumn and the temperature in the following July and February at 850 hPa in East Asia (EA). The Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over Korea shows a similar relationship to that for EA. Since 2007, reduction of autumn SIA has been followed by warming in Korea in July. The regional distribution shows strong correla-tions in the southern and eastern coastal areas of Korea. The correlations in the sea surface temperature shows the maximum values in July around the Korean Peninsula, consistent with the coastal regions in which the maximum correlations in the Korean SAT are seen. In February, the response of the SAT to the SIA is the opposite of that for the July temperature. The autumn sea ice reduction is followed by cooling over Korea in February, although the mag-nitude is small. Cooling in the Korean Peninsula in February may be related to planetary wave-like features. Examining the autumn Arctic sea ice variation would be helpful for seasonal prediction of the Korean surface temperature, mostly in July and somewhat in February. Particularly in July, the regression line would be useful as supplementary information for sea-sonal temperature prediction