러시아·인도·중국 전략적 협력의 삼각관계

Abstract

In the situation where the global and regional order is undergoing significant changes following the Russia-Ukraine War, there has been an increased interest in the special relationship formed between major actors in international politics, Russia, India, and China. This study has introduced a new conceptual framework called the "strategic cooperative triangle aiming to analyze this special relationship. This study defines the strategic cooperative triangle as a 'triangle of three pairs of complex relationships characterized by cooperation, competition, and conflictual. This kind of relationship is relational and procedural rather than fixed or static, and it is a relationship that is formed based on the interaction between various units constituting international politics. A Strategic cooperative triangle is built on the basis of interactions between strategic actors who recognize the necessity of cooperation under a specific international political environment. This study suggests that the strategic cooperative triangle is operating with the following steps; coordination of attitudes through communication, sharing of strategic vision and interests, and implementing the project. In order to explore the strategic cooperative triangle between Russia, India, and China that appeared in Central Eurasia, this study examines the regional order in Central Eurasia that has fluctuating since the post-Cold War to the present. And then, this study explores the three states perceptions toward the regional order and three pairs of bilateral interactions. The US goal of filling the geopolitical vacuum that emerged in Central Eurasia after the collapse of the Soviet Union was achieved to some extent through the 2001 War on Terror by establishing military bases within countries in some regions of Central Eurasia. Achieving the aforementioned goal was possible not only with the US efforts but also with the acceptance of US presence in Central Eurasia by some major regional countries such as Russia, India, and China, which aimed at stabilizing regional security through the cooperation with the US. However, the US attempts to expand its influence politically and militarily, which can be represented by the anti-regime movement that occurred within the countries of Central Eurasia since 2003 and the Iraq war aroused opposition from those countries, which have increased their power compared to the past. As a result, the regional order experienced a change once again. In order to resist the US expansion and protect their sphere of influence in the region, Russia·India·China decided to develop their bilateral strategic partnership. This study showed that it is not a coincidence that Russia-India, Russia-China, and India-China relations were developed exceedingly in this period. Observing these changes, this study assumes that the development of these three bilateral relations had an impact on the formation of the Russia·India·China strategic cooperative triangle. Meanwhile, Declination of the US influence after 2008 and the rise of China after 2010 had an impact on the change of the regional order. As China's western vector expansion invaded India's sphere of influence, the relationship between India and China stiffened. The clash of thesphere of influence of the two major powers arose the concern that the formation of the cooperative triangle could be stagnated.However, as shown in this study, even under these circumstances, the three countries that tried to form the strategic cooperative triangle continued their efforts to manage and coordinate their bilateral relations. Meanwhile, the geopolitical era returns with the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the strategic competition between the US and China. Even under these circumstances, the three countries kept their communicating and coordinating their relations. These were possible because the three countries tried to recover their trilateral cooperation to secure their sphere of influence in the region and build a multipolar international order. Observing the aforementioned changes, it could be assumed that Russia·India·China strategic cooperative triangle has entered a new phase. And finally, with India obtained its membership of SCO, the strategic cooperative triangle could enter the completion stage. After the 2017, the Russia·India·China summit, which had not been held since 2006, was held twice. The strategic cooperative triangle that entered a new stage continues to operate after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, affecting the formation of international order. With regard to the operation mechanism of the strategic cooperative triangle, Russia, India, and China tried to coordinate their possible conflict and competitive factors both bilaterally and trilaterally. Also, they established an institution for regular meetings and discussed international political issues in the stage of coordination of attitudes through communication. And then, they discussed their foreign visions and possible fields of cooperation to achieve security and economic interests shared among them in the stage of sharing strategic visions and interests. Finally, this study revealed that SCO and BRICS are the projects implemented by Russia, India, and China. As this study shows, Russia, India, and Chinas triangular relationship operates as a pivotal network within the two multilateral organizations and guide SCO and BRICS members to discover new agendas for cooperation. Russia, India, and China share and communicate various topics discussed or to be discussed in the SCO and BRICS at a trilateral level. Also, this study shows that Russia·India·China strategic cooperative relationship plays an important role when SCO and BRICS sought to expand their membership. The implication of this study is that it sought to analyze the unique relationship formed between Russia, India, and China, which are major actors in international politics, with the novel conceptual framework strategic cooperative triangle.

2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 지구 및 지역 질서가 변화하고 있는 상황 속에서 국제정치의 주요 행위자인 러시아·인도·중국 사이에 형성되어 있는 특수한 관계에 관한 관심이 증대되었다. 본 연구는 이와 같은 특수한 관계의 특징을 분석하는 것을 목표로 하였으며 이를 위해 전략적 협력의 삼각관계라는 새로운 개념적 틀을 도입하였다. 본 연구는 전략적 협력의 삼각관계를 지구 및 지역 질서에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 가장 작은 네트워크로써 복합적 특성을 띠는 세 쌍의 양자 관계로 이루어진 관계로 정의하는데, 여기에서 복합적 특성이란 관계 당사국 사이에 협력·갈등·경쟁의 요인이 모두 놓여 있는 것을 의미한다. 이와 같은 관계는 고정적이기보다는 관계적·과정적이며, 주어진 것이 아닌 국제정치를 구성하는 여러 단위체 간 상호작용을 바탕으로 형성되는 관계이다. 본 연구는 러시아·인도·중국 전략적 협력의 삼각관계의 발전과정을 탐구하기 위하여 지난 15년 동안의 중앙 유라시아 지역 질서 변동과 그에 대한 개별국가의 인식, 그리고 세 쌍의 양자관계의 조율 과정을 자세히 살펴보았다. 이를 바탕으로 본 연구는 러시아·인도·중국 전략적 협력의 삼각관계의 발전과정을 단계별로 추적하였다. 이어서 본 연구는 러시아·인도·중국 전략적 협력의 삼각관계의 작동기제인 △소통을 통한 입장의 조율, △전략적 비전과 이익의 공유, △프로젝트의 실천이 어떠한 내용으로 채워질 수 있는지 살펴보았다. 러시아·인도·중국은 소통을 통한 입장의 조율 단계에서 양자적·삼자적 차원에서 갈등·경쟁 요인에 대해 조율을 해나갔다. 이뿐만 아니라 러시아·인도·중국은 삼자적 차원에서 소통의 지속성을 확보하기 위해 제도를 구축하고, 국제정치적 이슈에 대한 논의를 진행하였다. 이어지는 전략적 비전과 이익의 공유 단계에서 러시아·인도·중국은 그들 사이에 공유되는 국제정치적 비전에 대한 논의를 진행하였고, 안보적 이익과 경제적 이익을 실현하기 위한 구체적인 협력 방안을 강구하였다. 마지막으로 본 연구는 프로젝트의 실천 단계에서 러시아·인도·중국이 SCO와 BRICS 내에서 어떠한 역할을 하고 있는지 자세히 살펴보았다. 이와 관련하여 본 연구는 러시아·인도·중국 전략적 협력의 삼각관계가 SCO와 BRICS의 확장에 유의미한 영향을 주고 있음을 드러냈다. 본 연구는 국제정치의 주요 행위자인 러시아·인도·중국 사이에 형성되어 있는 독특한 관계를 전략적 협력의 삼각관계라는 개념적 틀을 통해 분석했다는 점에서 의미를 지닌다.