A New Index to Assess Vulnerability to Regional Shrinkage (Hollowing out) Due to the Changing Age Structure and Population Density

Abstract

In South Korea, there is an awareness of the risks of regional shrinkage and depopulation due to demographic changes and unbalanced population distribution. With concerns about the extinction of local cities and the hollowing out of rural communities, scholars have increasingly called for new population indices or indicators to evaluate the current state of the local population. The purpose of this study was to develop a vulnerability index to effectively analyze the age structure and population changes associated with regional shrinkage (i.e., hollowing out). This study applied ranking and correlation analysis results using data for population density and the population structure by age to develop a new index to assess a region's vulnerability to the regional shrinkage effect. The new vulnerability index identified vulnerable regions by evaluating regional vulnerability using 2019 data. We also conducted a correlation analysis to validate the new index and found that the proposed index was significantly correlated with population growth and all other demographic indicators. The index developed in this study can be used to assess and compare the vulnerability of areas to regional shrinkage following population changes.