Estimating contact-adjusted immunity levels against measles in South Korea and prospects for maintaining elimination status

Abstract

Measles has been reemerging in South Korea since December 2018 resulting in 185 cases by September 2019. We calculated contact-adjusted immunity levels against measles in South Korea using national sero-prevalence data in 2014, vaccination uptake rates, and an age-specific contact matrix. We further explored options to achieve a contact-adjusted immunity level of 93% for herd immunity. The assessed contact-adjusted immunity level has increased from 86% in 2014 to 92% in 2018. Herd immunity could be achieved with immunizing 50% of susceptibles among birth cohorts 1999-2003 in 2018. Contact-adjusted immunity levels against measles have increased recently in South Korea, although they might not yet be high enough to guarantee herd immunity. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.