Development of an Individualized Prediction Calculator for the Benefit of Postoperative Radiotherapy in Patients with Surgically Resected De Novo Stage IV Breast Cancer

Abstract

Purpose: Locoregional treatment has been increasingly adopted for metastatic breast cancer at presentation. This study aims to develop an individualized calculator to predict the benefit of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) for patients with surgically resected de novo stage IV breast cancer. Methods and Materials: We searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for patients diagnosed with stage IV breast cancer between 2010 and 2014. After applying exclusion criteria, a total of 4473 patients were included in the analysis. Propensity score matching was used to balance the individual characteristics of the patients. After identifying the significant prognosticators, a nomogram was developed using multivariate regression models and internally validated. A web-based calculator was then constructed using a fitted survival prediction model. Results: With a median follow-up of 34 months, the three-year overall survival (OS) rates were 54.1% in the surgery alone group and 63.5% in the surgery + PORT group (p< 0.001). The survival benefit of PORT was maintained after propensity score matching (p< 0.001). Interaction testing of the prognostic variables found significant interactions between PORT and the presence of brain metastasis (p= 0.001), and between PORT and hormonal receptor expression (p= 0.018). After reviewing the performance of various models, a log-normal distributed survival model was adopted, with a C-index of 0.695. A calibration plot verified that the predicted survival rates were strongly correlated with the actual OS rates. A web-based survival calculator was constructed to provide individualized estimates of survival according to PORT. Conclusion: PORT significantly improved OS rates, though the individual benefit was affected by a number of factors. We successfully developed a nomogram and web-based calculator that predicted the prognosis according to PORT in patients with surgically resected de novo stage IV breast cancer. These tools are expected to be useful in clinical practice and in the design of related trials.