The 21-gene recurrence score assay and prediction of chemotherapy benefit: A propensity score-matched analysis of the seer database

Abstract

Background: To evaluate the performance of the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) assay in predicting chemotherapy benefit in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results population, we aimed to assess breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) by chemotherapy use within each of the RS categories. Methods: Data on breast cancer (BC) cases diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 with available RS results were released. Our analysis included patients with hormone receptor-positive, node-negative early-stage BC (n= 89,402), and three RS groups were defined; RS < 11, low; RS 11-25, intermediate; RS > 25, high. A propensity score matched-analysis was performed to assess and compare BCSM. Results: Chemotherapy was significantly associated with a reduced risk of BC death among patients in the high RS group (hazard ratio = 0.782; 95% CI, 0.618-0.990;p= 0.041). However, in the low and intermediate RS groups, there were no significant differences in BCSM between patients who received chemotherapy and those who did not. Among those with RS 11-25, chemotherapy benefit varied with tumor size (p= 0.001). Conclusions: Our findings provide real-world evidence that the 21-gene RS assay is predictive of chemotherapy benefit among patients in clinical practice. More refined risk estimates would be needed for patients with an intermediate RS.