A prognostic model for patients with triple-negative breast cancer: Importance of the modified Nottingham prognostic index and age

Abstract

Purpose: Considering the distinctive biology of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), this study aimed to identify TNBC-specific prognostic factors and determine the prognostic value of the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and its variant indices. Methods: A total of 233 patients with newly diagnosed stage I to III TNBC from 2003 to 2012 were reviewed. We retrospectively analyzed the patients' demographics, clinicopathologic parameters, treatment, and survival outcomes. The NPI was calculated as follows: tumor size (cm) x0.2+node status+Scarif-BloomRichardson (SBR) grade. The modified NPI (MNPI) was obtained by adding the modified SBR grade rather than the SBR grade. Results: The median follow-up was 67.8 months. Five-year disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were 81.4% and 89.9%, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that the MNPI was the most significant and common prognostic factor of DFS (p= 0.001) and OS (p=0.019). Young age (<= 35 years) was also correlated with poor DFS (p =0.006). A recursive partitioning for establishing the prognostic model for DFS was performed based on the results of multivariate analysis. Patients with a low MNPI (<= 6.5) were stratified into the low-risk group (p < 0.001), and patients with a high MNPI (> 6.5) were subdivided into the intermediate (> 35 years) and high-risk (<= 35 years) groups. Age was not a prognostic factor in patients with a low MNPI, whereas in patients with a high MNPI, it was the second key factor in subdividing patients according to prognosis (p= 0.023). Conclusion: The MNPI could be used to stratify patients with stage Ito III TNBC according to prognosis. It was the most important prognosticator for both DFS and OS. The prognostic significance of young age for DFS differed by MNPI.