The Soviet Union and the Middle East

Abstract

Soviet policy in the Middle East in the decade of the eighties will be determined, as it was in the past, by its interests in a region proximate to its heartland, its past experiences in the area, regional developments, and United States (and Western) actions and reactions. Barring unforeseen fundamental changes in the nature of these elements or in .the Soviet leadership, which might lead to altered political decision-making and perhaps dramatic domestic changes, it seems unlikely that basic changes in the Soviet approach will take place. In general the Soviet Union sees its past policies as appropriate Oust and moral) and successful, and its interests as enduring and deriving from objective conditions that are not likely to undergo substantial alteration. Events in recent years (especially 1979-80) suggest that the Middle East, with its substantial resources and strategic location, is not of marginal concern to the Soviet Union but also do not provide a clear answer to the question of how far it will go in support of its interests. Thus, for example, does the action in Afghanistan suggest a pattern or is it an aberration in policy? Understanding the Soviet position requires consideration of its interests, actions and previous accomplishments.