자민당 지지 변화의 요인 - 정부 업적과 다당화

Abstract

This paper tests an empirical relationship between the support for the LDP and the government performance in the economy and social welfare with various survey data. It finds that changes in the LDP support in the elections cannot be attributed to changes in government"s policies or economic performances. Arguments by Pempel, Curtis, and Inoguchi that relate the LDP resurgence in the 1980s to creative policy adjustments made by the government are not warranted.

This paper provides an alternative explanation for the changes in the LDP support: (1) until the 1969 election, the decreasing LDP support had been due to a systemic change toward a multi-party system, (2) while since the 1969 election the party support has varied with short-term factors such as corruption and popularity of prime minister.