미얀마의 민주화 가능성의 정치적 동학

Abstract

This paper explores conditions and possibilities for the democratization of Myanmar in the context of the "art of the possible," despite structural constraints.

This paper focuses on three dimensions of the political dynamics of Myanmar in the 1990s.

1) The pressure on SLORC to implement political reforms since the outbreak of the 1988 democratization movement and the military government"s defeat in the 1990 elections: The 1988 democratization awakend the political consciousness of the people of Myanmar, disseminated the value of democracy, settled on multiparty elections as a compromise and damaged the legitimacy of the military rule. The 1990 election signaled the rebirth of "political society" and the military government"s defeat in the 1990 elections positioned the NLD as a political alternative to the SLORC.

2) Aung San Suu Kyi"s potential as a unifying force for various anti-government groups: Suu Kyi insists on the cancellation of the National Convention and dialogue between the NLD and SLORC. She says the NLD should lead the constitution building according to the results of 1990 elections.

3) SLORC"s necessity to maintain good relations with foreign countries in order to pursue economic growth through economic liberalization: Especially, the U.S. applies pressure on the SLORC to improve the situation of Myanmar"s human rights. SLORC has to respond to foreign countries" pressure to introduce certain democratic processes because Myanmar needs foreign assistances.