밤의 수급전망에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study was carried out to establish the counterplan of demand and supply of the chestnut in Korea To achieve this purpose, estimation of domestic demand function, long-term forecasting of demand, financial analysis of chestnut production. and the status of production and consumption of Japan which is main export market were analyzed. Prediction results of domestic demand show that demand quantity will be increased approximately ninety or one hundred thousand tons in 2020s depending on market opening scenarios. In recent years, the abandonment of chestnut cultivation is increasing due to the lack of labor force and the over mature trees. But, the profitability of chestnut cultivation is not lower than other fruit trees. On the other hand, the analysis results of Japanese market reveal that domestic supply of Japan will be decreased because of low profitability of chestnut cultivation. And, this means that the export of Korean chestnut will be increased. In conclusion. it can be indicated that a great deal of efforts must be directed to maintain the domestic chestnut production at least to the present level. because the increasing demand for the domestic chestnut is expected.