Industrialization : Where Do We Stand ? Where are We Going ?

Abstract

The Lima Target is gradually vanishing out of sight. Between 1966 and 1980 the share of developing countries in world manufacturing value added did increase steadily, but not fast enough to put it on course for achieving the 25% target for 2000. The increase from 8.1% in 1966 to 11.0% in 1980 would have suggested a "naive" straight-line projection to 15-16% in 2000, and a Lima date for 2020 rather than 2000. Moreover, since 1980, the share has been stagnating at 11%, pushing Lima further into the future. The share of the developed marker economies has in fact declined sufficiently to put the Lima target within reach, but the lion's share of that decline went to the centrallyplanned econoies rather than the developing countries: between 1966 and 1980. 8.8% went to the former and only 2.3% to the LDCs. Since 1980, of course, the whole of the continued declining share of the developed market economies has gone to the centrally-planned economies and none to the LDCs. Thus, we can summarise recent trends in the following three statements.