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Ex-ante simulation of mobile TV market based on consumers preference data

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Authors
Choi, Jae Young; Koh, Daeyoung; Lee, Jongsu
Issue Date
2008-09
Publisher
Elsevier
Citation
Technol. Forecast. Soc. 75 (2008) 1043-1053
Keywords
Willingness to pay; Digital multimedia broadcasting, Mixed logit
Abstract
Subscribers to mobile TV are able to watch programming via a mobile telecommunications network. While
expectations for mobile TVare promising, it is at present a fledgling industry, and deployments of mobile TV networks
have been driven largely by systemimplementation concerns rather than consumer demand and market considerations.
In South Korea, mobile TVofferings are based on two competing standards: satellite digital multimedia broadcasting
(S-DMB) and terrestrial digital multimedia broadcasting (T-DMB). Beginningwith stated preference data drawn from a
conjoint survey administered before the launch of commercial mobile TV services in South Korea, the authors use
Bayesian estimation to investigate the effect of consumer preferences on the mobile TV market. Results indicate that
consumers viewsubscription cost and media quality as the two most important attributes ofmobile TVand that T-DMBbased
service should presently occupy roughly 75% of the market.Moreover, the authors model the effects of varying
the core attributes of the services on market share as well as the market share elasticity of each type of service. The
authors test their modeled results against actual subscription data, and the model fairs well, leading to the conclusion
that mobile TV broadcasters and policymakers alike will find use for the study's findings and the model itself.
ISSN
0040-1625
Language
English
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10371/8426
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.10.001
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Appears in Collections:
College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Dept. of Industrial Engineering (산업공학과)Journal Papers (저널논문_산업공학과)
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