Application of Demographic Estimation Models to Fertility in a Nigerian Ethnic Group: Implications for Population Growth and Family Planning Programmes

Abstract

This study examines the current level of fertility in a Nigerian ethnic group, the Igbo in Eastern Nigeria, using various modern demographic estimation techniques. The aim is to control for the validity and reliability of estimates derived from these techniques with a view to arriving at more robust estimates. The analysis was from data collected for the study of lactation and birth-spacing dynamics in the Igbo area of Eastern Nigeria. About 1,000 women were selected for subsequent interviewing, out of which the responses of 816 were finally processed. The result of this analysis shows that completed family size in the Igbo area is 6.1. Application of various techniques show that Igbo fertility level remains high-higher than that of other ethnic groups in Nigeria. The estimated total fertility rate is between 6.8 and 7.4. Explanation for this observed level is sought within the cultural milieu of the area. For instance, there are various names in the area that depict the cultural value placed on having children. That the Igbo still cherish high numbers of children is a strong impediment to the implementation of a successful family planning programme in the area. Efforts should be mounted to discourage high fertility in the area. For instance in areas where people celebrate the high number of children they have had, they should be made to pay taxes to the government anytime when they want to hold such a celebration.