S-Space College of Humanities (인문대학) Institute for Russian, East European & Eurasian Studies (러시아문화권연구소) 러시아연구 (Russian Studies) 러시아연구 Volume 01/02 (1992)
НЗП기 소련의 농민경제와 콘드라티예프의 친(親)농민적 경제발전계획론
The Soviet Agrarian Economy under NEP and Kondrat’ev’s Pro-peasant Theory of Economic Development
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 러시아연구소
- 러시아연구, Vol.1, pp. 119-151
- Among the economists rehabilitated in July, 1987 was Nicholas Kondrat’ev, known in the West for his theory of the long wave cycle of capitalism but branded in his country since his trial and execution in 1930 as an enemy of the people who had tried to revive capitalism. He is not only cleared of these charges but is becoming a new focus of attention the man whose theory of economic development based on the strengthening of the peasant economy offered a viable alternative to Stalinism.
Kondrat’ev’ s theory of economic development differed from the Stalinist main line on two main points. He argued that socialism could not be built and world revolution could not succeed without paying careful attention to the long wave, as well as the short-range, cycles of capitalism and that Russia as a country which successfully accomplished anti-feudal and anti-imperialist revolution without a highly developed capitalism had to strengthen its agricultural economy as a prerequisite to successful industrialization.
Whether Kondrat’ev’s alternative would have worked better than Stalin’s is a question which cannot be answered simply. Kondrat’ev’s insistence on reliance on market mechanism and production incentive to the peasants may not have resulted in any noticeable increase in the income from agricultural exports since the price drop had little to do without policy-making in the Soviet Union. 1t might have exacerbated the problem of social differentiation in the villages and economic disparity between the city and countryside. On the other hand, the worst consequences of the Stalinist policy of forced collectivization, destruction of agriculture and bureaucratic bulldozing of the peasant life could have been avoided. The purging of the Bolshevik right and Kondrat’ev school meant the end to open-minded search for better road to socialism.