貨物의 輸送手段選擇模型 定立

Abstract

The choice between competing transportation modes, usually known as modal choice or modal split, involves a complex decision related not only to the characteristics of the competing modes but also to those of the mode users and the freight. The ability to accurate estimation of model split, I.e. the usage of competing modes, is a key ingredient in any transportation planning process. (2 A. number of modal choice models for freight movement have been developed that estimate the probability of modal patronages given a knowledge of the generalized costs of transportation for competing modes. Three types of mathematical concepts have been used to construct stochastic modal choice functions for individual behavior and these are discriminant analysis, probit analysis and logit analysis. The time value distribution model which was constructed in this study was based upon a multiple modal choice model, using a statist ical analysis technique known as probit analysis. The basic premise of the time value distribution model is that mode users are subjected to changing the magnitudes of relative generalized costs and that the time value of users by freight and region makes a Iognormal distribution. This study focused on the calibration of a behavioral modal choice model for the inter-regional freight movement on the basis of the time value distribution model.