대외관세의 차이가 무역전환효과에 미치는 영향 분석: 남미공동시장의 사례

Abstract

본 논문은 무역전환효과를 남미공동시장(Mercosur)의 회원국별로 분석한 결과 무역전환효과가 역외국으로부터의 수입에 부과하는 관세에 따라 결정된다는 것을 보여준다. 역내수출과 역외수출간의 수출유사성지수와 각국의 수입에서 회원국으로부터의 수입이 차지하는 비중을 분석하여, 역외국가에 대한 관세가 높은 브라질에서 무역전환효과가 가장 강하게 발생한 대신 역외국가에 대한 관세가 낮은 칠레에서는 무역전환효과가 발생하지 않았다는 것을 보여준다. 아르헨티나는 그 중간이었다고 할 수 있다. 아르헨티나에서는 지역통합으로 인한 무역전환효과가 발생하지 않았거나 발생하였더라도 브라질에서보다는 훨씬 적게 발생하였다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 지역통합을 추구할 때 대외관세가 낮을수록 무역전환효과가 적게 발생한다는 것을 남미공동시장의 아르헨티나와 브라질, 칠레의 사례에서 알 수 있다. 따라서 정책적인 시사점은 지역경제통합을 추구할 때 무역전환효과를 줄이기 위해서 대외공동관세를 가능한 한 낮게 책정해야 한다는 것이다.

By analyzing the trade diversion effect in each of the Mercosurs member countries, this paper shows that trade diversion effect depends on the import tariffs on non-member countries. In 1990s, trade diversion effect was strong in Brazil, whose import tariffs on non-member countries were high, whereas it was weak in Chile, whose import tariff on non-member countries were relatively low. Argentina was an intermediate case. Even if Mercosur aimed at a common market, it was far from being one. There were many exceptions to common external tariff, and this was the cause of the different trade diversion effect across member countries. Before the formation of Mercosur, Argentinas trade regime was relatively open whereas Brazil maintained some protection. This tendency remained even after Mercosur was established. Chile participated in Mercosur as an associate member and was able to maintain low tariff rates. Such different tariff levels among member countries resulted in different trade diversion effect, the strongest effect appearing in Brazil, whose tariffs on non-member countries were the highest. The implication of the analysis is that even in regional trade agreements with common external tariff, as common markets, the trade diversion effect may differ greatly across countries if there are many exceptions to the common external tariff. A policy implication is that, when establishing a regional trade agreement, each member country has to reduce the tariff rates to the non-member countries in order to minimize the trade diversion effect.