한국 가계공급채널로서 전세제도 실증분석-전월세전환율 중심으로
Jeonse as a type of direct debt financing in Korea- An analysing of the conversion rate freom Jeonse to monthly rent
|dc.description||학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 경제학부, 2014. 8. 김세직.||-|
|dc.description.abstract||본 논문은 서울시 아파트 가격데이터를 활용 10년간 전월세전환율 시계열 데이터베이스를 구축하고 이에 기반 하여 전세제도의 금융적 성격을 실증적으로 규명하였다.
김세직․신현송(2012)에 따르면 전세의 암묵적 이자율인 전월세전환율은 전세가 대체하는 금융시장의 대출이자율과 밀접하게 움직인다. 예금은행 가계대출 공급이 제한적이던 시기 전월세전환율은 사채시장 이자율에 가까웠으나 2000년대 이후 예금은행 가계대출 공급이 급증하며 전월세전환율은 예금은행 가계대출이자율에 가깝게 움직이고 있다. 이는 가계 주된 자금 조달 시장이 전세시장에서 예금은행 가계대출 시장으로 대체되고 있음을 의미한다.
서울시 아파트의 전월세전환율 시계열 데이터를 분석하여 발견한 전월세전환율 주요 특징과 의미는 다음과 같다.
첫째, 전월세전환율은 예금은행 가계대출이자율과 밀접하게 움직인다. 특히 매매가격이 비싼 집들의 전월세전환율일수록 예금은행 가계대출이자율 변동에 탄력적으로 변동한다.
둘째, 전월세전환율이 예금은행 가계대출이자율과 무관하게 변동하는 기간이 존재한다. 전세는 주택임대와 금융이 결합된 특수한 제도이다. 이에 전월세전환율은 예금은행 가계대출이자율 변동 뿐 아니라 전세가격의 변동성, 주택 경기 및 대출규제정책 등의 영향을 받는다.
셋째, 전월세전환율은 주택매매가격이 쌀수록 높다. 집주인과 세입자의 신용리스크가 전월세전환율에 반영된다. 집주인과 세입자의 신용은 소득 및 자산수준에 따라 차이가 나고 보유하고 임차하고 있는 집의 가격은 소득 및 자산 수준과 상관관계가 높다. 전월세전환율이 높다는 것은 상대적으로 전세금이 싸고 월세임대료가 비싼 것을 의미한다. 이에 신용이 나쁜 집주인은 전세금을 싸게 받아서라도 전세를 통해 자금을 조달할 유인이 크다. 신용이 나쁜 세입자의 경우 전세금 조달이 힘들어 월세가격이 비싸도 월세 임차를 하게 된다.
넷째, 전월세전환율은 전세가/매매가 비율이 낮을수록 높다. 전세가/매매가 비율은 기대매매가격상승률과 반비례한다.(김세직·신현송,2012) 다시 말해 기대매매가격상승률이 높을 경우 전월세전환율은 높다. 기대투자수익이 높을수록 허용하는 자금조달 비용의 수준이 높다. 전월세전환율도 기대수익률에 따라 차이가 난다. 기대매매가격상승률이 높을 경우 자금 사정이 좋지 않은 사람들도 차입을 해서라도 집을 보유하려는 유인이 증가한다.
|dc.description.abstract||Jeonse refers to a type of rental contract in Korea in which tenants deposit a large sum of money and have no obligation to pay monthly rent. The tenants right to use the place serves as collateral for the deposit, the interest from which is what owners take during the contract.
The goal is this thesis is to provide empirical evidence that Jeonse serves as a type of direct debt financing. I conducted a large-scale data analysis of the implicit interest rate on Jeonse, which is called the conversion rate from Jeonse to monthly rent. I built up a time series database of the conversion rates of the apartments in the Seoul area for the past 10 years.
Kim and Shin (2012) showed that the conversion rates in the Jeonse market are closely related to the interest rates in the lending market. In the days when the formal banking sector offered only a limited size of household lending, the conversion rate was close to the curb market interest rate. However, since 2000s when the banking sector drastically expanded their business in household lending, the conversion rate has been closer to the bank lending rate. It suggests that the banking sector has grown to be as an important provider of household lending as the Jeonse market.
The key findings of this thesis are as follows: First, conversion rates generally co-vary with bank lending rate. When changes occur, I found, houses selling prices interact with the response sensitivity of conversion rates. That is, the more expensive a house is in its selling price, the more sensitively its conversion rate responds to the lending rate.
Second, conversion rates may change due to socio-economic factors other
than lending rates, however. Jeonse plays a major role in house rental contract in Korea while it serves as direct debt financing. Due to this unique and complex characteristic of Jeonse, conversion rates depend not only on bank lending rates but also on any changes in housing market conditions and the governments regulations on loans. Third, conversion rates are modulated by credit risk as well. High credit risk of owners and tenants tends to boost conversion rates. A high conversion rate indicates monthly rent is expensive relative to its Jeonse price. Owners with low income and small asset tend to have borrowing constraints and are thus motivated to take relatively cheap Jeonse prices in order to afford house prices. Tenants with bad credit, however, are forced to take relatively high monthly rent if they cannot afford a Jeonse deposit. In addition, as the credit risk of owners and tenants is highly associated with
the value of apartments they can afford, the relationship between credit risk and conversion rate can be restated that cheaper apartments tend to have higher conversion rates.
Fourth, conversion rates increase when the Jeonse-to-selling price ratio decreases. Given that the Jeonse-to-selling price ratio is known to be in inverse proportion to the expected appreciation rates, it suggests that conversion rates correlate with expected growth in selling prices. That is, when high return is expected, prospective owners who have less than enough funds to purchase an apartment risk high conversion rates, a correlate of high interest rates.
|dc.description.tableofcontents||제1장 서론 ························································································· 1
제2장 가계금융 공급채널로서 전세제도 ···································· 4
1. 전세제도의 본질 ·········································································· 4
2. 전세 공급과 수요 결정요인 ······················································· 6
3. 가계금융시장의 성장 및 탈전세 현상 ·································· 10
2.1 예금은행 가계금융공급 증가 ··············································· 12
2.2 주택 임대시장의 변화 ···························································· 14
제3장 전월세전환율 시리즈 구축 ··········································· 20
1. 전월세전환율 개········································································ 20
2. 기존 전월세전환율 데이터의 한계 ········································ 23
2.1 국민은행 통계 ········································································· 23
2.2 한국감정원 통계 ····································································· 25
2.3 서울시 통계 ············································································· 28
2.4 부동산 114통계 ······································································· 30
3. 본연구의 전월세전환율 시리즈 ·············································· 31
3.1 데이터 ······················································································· 31
3.2 매매가격 및 전세가/매매가비율에 따른 그룹 분류 ···········34
3.3 그룹별 전월세전환율 시리즈 ·················································43
제4장 한국 아파트 전월세전환율 실증분석 ·······························47
1. 기존 연구······················································································47
2. 한국 아파트 전월세전환율의 4가지 특징 및 해석 ················50
2.1 한국 아파트 전월세전환율의 4가지 특징 ··························· 50
2.2 예금은행 가계대출이자율과 전월세전환율 ·························52
2.3 예금은행 가계대출이자율 상승시기 전월세전환율의 비대칭
적 움직임 ···················································································· 56
2.4 매매가격에 따른 전월세전환율 ·············································60
2.5 전세가/매매가 비율에 따른 전월세전환율 ·························63
제5장 결론 ···················································································· 66
참고문헌 ························································································· 69
[부록1] 예금은행 가계대출이자율과 전월세전환율 공적분 검정 ·········································································································· 74
[부록2] 예금은행 가계대출이자율과 전월세전환율 비선형 공적분 검정 ···························································································· 81
[부록3] 전월세전환율 3요인(매매가격, 전세가/매매가비율, 가계대출이자율) 검정 ······································································ 89
Abstract ·························································································· 92
|dc.subject||conversion rate from Jeonse to monthly rent||-|
|dc.subject||bank lending rate||-|
|dc.title||한국 가계공급채널로서 전세제도 실증분석-전월세전환율 중심으로||-|
|dc.title.alternative||Jeonse as a type of direct debt financing in Korea- An analysing of the conversion rate freom Jeonse to monthly rent||-|
- Appears in Collections:
- College of Social Sciences (사회과학대학)Dept. of Economics (경제학부)Theses (Ph.D. / Sc.D._경제학부)