S-Space Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원) Dept. of Public Health (보건학과) Theses (Ph.D. / Sc.D._보건학과)
The Global Spread of Asbestos Ban Policy and its Impacts and Implications on Environmental Health and Safety : 석면 금지 정책의 국제적 확산이 환경안전보건에 미치는 영향과 함의
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- 보건대학원 보건학과
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 대학원
- asbestos ; mesothelioma ; asbestos ban ; asbestos consumption ; asbestos trade
- 학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 보건대학원 : 보건학과 환경보건학 전공, 2013. 8. 백도명.
- Out of 143 countries that consumed asbestos between 2003 and 2007, only 44 have banned asbestos. This study tried to explain how asbestos ban policy adopted and spread globally, how it impact world asbestos produce, trade, consumption, and mesothelioma mortality, historically and the future.
Chapter I provide a rational explanation of why some countries have banned asbestos while others have not, based on a synthesis that asbestos ban policy of a country will rely on a process of cognition of threats and exploration of safer alternatives. As we hypothesized that increased social cost of mesothelioma, capacity of health-related infrastructures, and policy diffusion from adjacent countries were related to asbestos ban adoption, published databases of asbestos ban years, mesothelioma mortality, country rankings in health care and human rights standings, and distribution of banning countries over 14 regions were analysed accordingly. The average mesothelioma death rate was significantly higher for countries with asbestos bans than in those with no ban. No-ban countries had less well-developed health-related infrastructures. Among European countries, there was a tendency toward geographical diffusion of asbestos ban policy from Nordic to Western and then other European countries over the years. Even though aberrant cases were also noted where bans were instituted even without mesothelioma database, these were rather exceptions than rules. Risk cognition is a complex process, but the presence of well-functioning health infrastructures, as well as the increased social cost of mesothelioma, that can make the plight of asbestos victims visible to the eyes of public and policy makers, may have contributed to this process. Asbestos ban policy from adjacent countries might have facilitated the adoption of alternative solutions.
Chapter II describes the world production and consumption of asbestos and the trade of asbestos-containing products. Data was obtained from the British Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey and United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics data, and described mainly the status of the income level and states which ban asbestos. World asbestos production increased until the late 1970s and then decreased for 15 years, finally plateauing in the last 15 years. Crude asbestos consumption in developed countries decreased
however, they plateaued or even increased in middle- and low-income countries. Most asbestos-containing products except crocidolite are still traded among countries which ban asbestos. The banning of asbestos is complete when there are no exports or imports of asbestos-containing end products. Even in countries which ban asbestos, the monitoring of the trade of asbestos-containing products is required.
Chapter III attempts to build a prediction model of mesothelioma mortality according to the consumption of asbestos. A mesothelioma mortality prediction model was constructed based on cumulative asbestos consumption quantities as the exposure level. In each country, annual age-sex specific mortality rates were calculated by dividing the number of mesothelioma deaths by the corresponding age-group population. We use a negative binomial regression model to predict mesothelioma deaths by cumulative asbestos exposure. The model estimated that the latent period for mesothelioma was about 45 years. Predicted world future mesothelioma deaths among males during 2015-2070 ranged from 748,329 to 764,052 per million population, depending on the expected level of asbestos consumption. World mesothelioma deaths will peak in late 2039 according to the model and then decline.
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