The Long-Term Forecasting of the Mongolian Energy Demand and Supply Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Model

Abstract

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is one of the most important topics in relation to Mongolia due to the countrys abundant natural resources, which offer great opportunities for achieving independent, sustainable, and green energy development if managed properly. In this thesis, an overview of the current situation of Mongolias energy sector and its role and contribution in the countrys economy and environment, and a comprehensive assessment of the sector, are provided. Most importantly, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model was used to forecast the future energy supply and demand and to build and compare possible scenarios that could sustain economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy security in the country. In this thesis, three scenarios for long-term energy development in Mongolia by 2040 were built using the LEAP model, and 2010 was set as the base year. The forecasting of the energy demand and supply was shown as a business-asusual (BAU) scenario, based on the existing national energy plans and trends, and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Mongolia, such as hydro, wind, and solar energy, were suggested as the ii renewable energy (REN) scenario while improving the energy efficiency in every way that makes economic sense was assumed and analyzed in the energy efficiency (EE) scenario. Each scenario can represent a distinctive development pathway with different characteristics, which can be applied to Mongolias energy sector.