The Effect of Energy Demand on Greenhouse Gases and Analysis of Their Mitigation in Cambodia

Abstract

In this paper, energy demand and GHG emissions were forecast for the next 30 years by taking 2010 (from the 2010 Cambodian energy system) as the base year and using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for the analysis. The LEAP model forecasts energy consumption and GHG emissions by sector and totals them nationwide by summing up the sectorial energy consumption and GHG emissions. All available energy consumption activities and socioeconomic data were collected and inputted into the model to develop scenarios. Scenarios are self-consistent storylines of the future energy system and will show how energy might evolve over time in a particular socioeconomic setting and under a particular set of policy conditions. Initially, a Business as Usual (BaU) scenario was created based on the current energy situation. For this, the base year situation and the expected future changes were used based on the likely plans and growth trajectories. The scenario was the implementation of anticipated and likely-to-be-carried-out projects and policies. Then the Alternative Policy Scenario (AP), which simulates new policy measures, was developed to meet the energy demand and reduce GHG emissions. The household-sector energy demand was assumed to be driven by population growth. The energy demand for industry, commerce, agriculture, and transport were assumed to be driven by their GDP and the retail price of oil. The computation showed that energy demand and its related GHG emission would increase in the next 30 years and would be 5.79 and 5.00 times that of the base year values, respectively. The computed results showed that the household sector has the third highest GHG emissions contribution. Therefore, the selected policy measures were mostly focused on this sector. Under those measures, the energy demand could be reduced by 1.65%, 2.21%, and 2.22%, and the GHG emissions, by 2.37%, 4.75%, and 7.06% in the years 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. On the other hand, the transformation analysis and efficient charcoal production measures would reduce the input wood demand by 50.91%. Furthermore, with efficient charcoal production, the GHG emissions could be reduced by 16%, 32.3%, and 50.5% in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. Finally, recommendations to implement those mitigation measures are given for governmental and non-governmental organizations.