Future fuel mix for electricity-generation in Mongolia: The role of advanced energy technologies

Abstract

Energy planning is essential to establish trade-offs among objectives because planning involves anticipating needs and assessing impacts of different scenarios of energy supply. Due to the intensive expansion of the economy and mining sector development, Mongolia is facing lack of power resource and, capacity extension of power sector is an imminent matter nowadays. Hence, it is necessary to review the power supply options for Mongolia in the coming years. The study analyzed electricity generation scenarios for 2030 year and its costs, CO2 emissions, and energy security. The Government scenario and four alternative scenarios are developed

the Government scenario in which the most of capacity is added according to government policy documents, while, the first alternative scenario (Least Cost) in which only least cost optimization is considered without any constraints or externality, for the second alternative scenario (Solar oriented-Renewable Development), a target of solar and renewable shares are set in total generation, in the last scenario (IGCC and UCG+CCGT oriented), reflects worldwide energy trends and creates secondary energy conditions in Mongolia. This research tends to present the electricity scenarios to the Mongolian government and policy makers on how to improve the security of the energy supply based on the empirical analysis results of the energy sector.