Long-Term Energy Analysis for Sustainable Strategies in Nigeria Using the LEAP Model

Abstract

This thesis developed a set of the long-term energy scenarios for Nigeria considering the impact of vital factors that may influence its energy policies in its future energy system. The energy scenarios were developed through the application of the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. The Nigerian LEAP model was developed to identify the future energy demand and how it could be met using a least-cost combination of technology options without similar expansion in greenhouse gases. The developed model incorporated four policy scenarios that differ from one another, and this was intended to capture the vital factors that may influence the energy policies in the future. The factors that were taken as parameters included the GDP, the households, the population and urbanization growth rates, and the growth rates of the energy-intensive sectors. The four scenarios that were developed were the reference (REF), low-carbon moderate (LCM), low-carbon advanced (LCA), and green-optimistic (GO) scenarios. The results of the modeled scenarios showed that the energy demand is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 3.58% (REF), 3.53% (LCM), 2.95% (LCA), and 2.61% (GO). The REF scenario energy demand was the highest (with 3,075 PJ by 2040) while the GO scenario was the lowest (2,249.2 PJ). The GHG emission rate was very low for the GO scenario (124.4 MMTCDE) compared to the other scenarios, and this was due to the high level of renewables and the energy efficiency application into the energy mix. The level of energy policies such as various degrees of energy efficiency and fuel/technology switching was increased from the LCM scenario (which had a moderate policy implementation), the advance LCA scenario, and the more aggressive GO scenario. Furthermore, a cost-benefit analysis was carried out to ascertain the cost of implementing some policies and strategies in Nigeria, including energy efficiency and fuel/technology switching. The results showed that it would cost Nigeria USD1.69 billion to implement policies in the LCM scenario, USD23.8 billion in the LCA scenario, and USD41.4 billion in the GO scenario. With regard to the least-cost electricity generation options for power plants in the different scenarios in this study, it was shown that on-shore wind power and small hydropower are the least-cost electricity generation options overall. For fossil fuel power plants, CCGT was identified as the least-cost electricity generation option as well as the lowest-GHG-emitting power plant besides biomass, which was considered a low-carbon technology. From the results in general, it was observed that low-carbon and renewable technologies will have an important role to play in the realization of low-carbon development in Nigeria. To achieve this feat, this thesis further explored some strategies that can ensure low-carbon development in Nigeria, with a view of attaining green growth. These strategies include adopting the green growth ideology and coming up with energy policy reforms, long-term energy plans and targets, energy regulations and standards, environmental tax reforms, urban plans, efficient building designs, and measures to improve the efficiency of the countrys energy and transport system. This thesis is significant in that it applied a bottom-up approach for the Nigerian energy model, performed a cost-benefit analysis, presented least-cost electricity generation options, and suggested strategic energy policies. The findings from this thesis can be used as a guide in the development of energy policies and sustainable strategies for the attainment of low-carbon development in the long term in Nigeria.