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The Role of Energy in Economic Growth in Peru : 에너지 소비가 페루경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관하여
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | Jongsu Lee | - |
| dc.contributor.author | 카를로 | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2017-07-14T02:34:07Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2017-07-14T02:34:07Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2014-02 | - |
| dc.identifier.other | 000000017466 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10371/122642 | - |
| dc.description | 학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영전공, 2014. 2. Jongsu Lee. | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 본 논문은 1971년부터 2010년까지의 페루 전력 및 에너지소비와 국내 총생산(GDP), 수입 및 수출 대비 GDP 등의 경제변수가 가지는 인과관계의 방향과 장, 단기적 구조관계를 살펴본다. 본지는 산업, 광업, 어업, 농공업, 교통, 주거, 상업, 공공 분야를 아우르는 다양한 경제부문의 전력 소비(1985-2009)를 분석한다.
본 연구의 결론은 수출과 전력소비의 단기적 일방향성 인과관계와 GDP와 수출이 전력소비로 연결되는 장기적 일방향성 인과관계 및 GDP와 수입이 전력소비로 이어지는 장기적 일방향성 인과관계를 보여준다. | - |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper examines the direction of causality and short-term and long-term structural relationships between electricity or energy consumption and different economic variables such as Gross Domestic Product exports and imports as a percentage of GDP in Peru from 1971 through 2010. The analysis is extended into different economic sectors by incorporating industrial, mining, fishing, agro-industrial, transportation, residential and commercial and public energy consumption (1985-2009).
The main findings of the study include a short-run unidirectional causality from exports to electricity consumption and a long-run unidirectional causality running from GDP and exports to electricity consumption as well as a long-run unidirectional causality running from GDP and imports to electricity consumption. | - |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | Abstract i
List of Contents ii List of Tables vii List of Figures viii Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Problem Description 1 1.2 Research Questions 3 1.3 Research Objective 4 1.4 Motivation 4 1.5 Limitations 5 1.6 Research Structure 5 Chapter 2 Study Background 9 2.1 The Peruvian Economy 9 2.2 Energy Sector in Peru 13 2.3 Electricity Sector in Peru 20 2.4 Energy Efficiency in Peru 26 2.5 Energy-GDP Interactions 29 2.6 Government Energy Policy 33 Chapter 3 Theoretical Framework and Hypothesis 34 3.1 Theoretical Framework 34 3.1.1 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth 35 3.1.2 Economic Growth and Trade 39 3.1.3 Energy Consumption and Trade 41 3.2 Competing Hypothesis 43 Chapter 4 Literature Review 46 4.1 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth 47 4.2 Economic Growth and Trade 54 4.3 Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Trade 55 Chapter 5 Methodology Part I: Trivariate Analysis, 1971- 2011 60 5.1 Data 61 5.2 Unit Root Tests 61 5.3 Co-integration Test 65 5.4 Granger Causality Test 67 Chapter 6 Methodology Part II: Analysis by Economic Sector 1985-2009 73 6.1 Data 74 6.2 Unit Root Tests 75 6.3 Co-integration Test 77 6.4 Granger Causality Test 79 Chapter 7 Part I: Empirical Results 80 7.1 Unit Root Tests 80 7.2 VAR 82 7.3 Co-integration Analysis 82 7.4 Granger Causality Test 85 7.4.1 Model 1: Electricity Consumption-GDP-Exports 85 7.4.2 Model 2: Electricity Consumption-GDP-Imports 87 Chapter 8 Part II: Empirical Results 91 8.1 Unit Root Tests 91 8.2 VAR 94 8.3 Co-integration Analysis 96 8.4 Granger Causality Test 100 8.4.1 Model 1: Industrial Energy Consumption-GDP 100 8.4.2 Model 2: Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption-GDP 101 8.4.3 Model 3: Industrial Energy Consumption-GDP-Mining Energy Consumption 102 8.4.4 Model 4: Industrial Energy Consumption-GDP-Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption 104 8.4.5 Model 5: Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption-GDP-Fishing Energy Consumption 105 8.4.6 Model 6: Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption-GDP-Agro-Industrial Energy Consumption 106 8.4.7 Model 7: Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption-GDP-Mining Energy Consumption 107 Chapter 9 Policy Implications 116 9.1 Part 1: Direct Policy Implications 119 9.2 Part 2: Direct Policy Implications 122 9.3 Part 1 and 2: Further Policy Implications 126 9.3.1 Part 1: Further Policy Implications 127 9.3.2 Part 2: Further Policy Implications 129 10 Conclusion 134 Bibliography 137 Appendix A: GDP by Sectors 2011 151 Appendix B: Traditional Exports: 2011 152 Appendix C: Imports: 2011 153 Appendix D: Energy Consumption by Sectors: 2009 154 Appendix E: Energy Consumption Composition: 2009 155 Appendix F: Electricity Consumption by Sectors: 2009 156 Appendix G: Coefficients of the VECM (Part I) 157 Appendix H: Coefficients of the VECM (Part II) 159 Appendix I: Time Series Plots (Part I) 166 Appendix J: VAR Results (Part I) 168 Appendix K: Co-integration Test Specifications (Part I) 169 Appendix L: Normalized Co-integrating Equations (Part I) 170 Appendix M: Time Series Plots (Part II) 172 Appendix N: VAR Results (Part II-Bivariate Models) 176 Appendix O: Co-integration Test Specifications (Part II-Bivariate Models) 177 Appendix P: Trivariate Model Construction 179 Appendix Q: VAR Results (Part II-Trivariate Models) 180 Appendix R: Co-integration Test Specifications (Part II-Trivariate Models) 181 Appendix S: Normalized Co-integrating Equations (Part II) 182 | - |
| dc.format | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.extent | 2818044 bytes | - |
| dc.format.medium | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en | - |
| dc.publisher | 서울대학교 대학원 | - |
| dc.subject | Energy | - |
| dc.subject | Electricity | - |
| dc.subject | Co-Integration | - |
| dc.subject | Granger Causality | - |
| dc.subject.ddc | 658 | - |
| dc.title | The Role of Energy in Economic Growth in Peru | - |
| dc.title.alternative | 에너지 소비가 페루경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관하여 | - |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.contributor.AlternativeAuthor | Carlo Mario Franchini Irujo | - |
| dc.description.degree | Master | - |
| dc.citation.pages | 204 | - |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영전공 | - |
| dc.date.awarded | 2014-02 | - |
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