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Numerical Prediction of Scientific Balloon Trajectories While Considering Various Uncertainties
불확실성을 고려한 고고도 과학 기구의 궤적 예측 연구

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Authors
이용선
Advisor
이관중
Major
공과대학 기계항공공학부
Issue Date
2017-02
Publisher
서울대학교 대학원
Keywords
Scientific BalloonHigh Altitude BalloonUncertaintyTrajectory PredictionMonte Carlo Simulation
Description
학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 기계항공공학부, 2017. 2. 이관중.
Abstract
Before launching a scientific balloon, one needs to precisely predict its trajectory to avoid any possible accidents, as there are no means to control the horizontal motion of the balloon once it is launched. Although earlier studies developed simulation programs that predicted the trajectory of a scientific balloon with reasonable accuracy, the simulated results were hardly the same as the actual balloon flight because there existed uncertainties in balloon trajectory prediction. To address the difference between the predicted and actual flight trajectories, the prediction should be probabilistic, which means the uncertainties involved in the calculation should be taken into account. In the present work, a numerical simulation program is developed to predict the trajectories of a balloon, while considering various uncertainties, with the use of a Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity studies are performed to identify the most dominant uncertainty parameter in the distribution of landing points of the balloon flight. Operational uncertainty represented by the amount of buoyant gas is shown to be the most significant source of the prediction error, although it can be overcome by controlling the amount of lifting gas during the actual flight.
Language
English
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/123925
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College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Dept. of Mechanical Aerospace Engineering (기계항공공학부)Theses (Master's Degree_기계항공공학부)
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