Development of an Assessment Model for Flood Risks in Inudstrial Sectors Considering Climate Change

Abstract

Recently, damage from meteorological disasters in the urban and industrial sectors has increased as a result of climate change. Notably, flooding damage to urban and industrial facilities from torrential rainfall has significantly affected the national economy, and huge costs are involved in repairing the damage. Since flood damage is expected to increase with climate change, a method for accurately assessing future flood damage due to climate change is required in order to minimize this hazard. Risk assessment is predominantly used to provide advance responses of damage to businesses from a natural disaster, in this case flooding. Damage from the probable flood is determined based on actual cases of previous damage, and the risk is assessed using probability and damage scales. The risk is assessed by taking into account the applicable hazards and applying them to the vulnerable area. The itself assesses the risk in order to maximize economic profits using an urban flood risk assessment and financial statements. However, for the business to assess the flood risk accurately, the assessment should consider not only the company itself but also its general location, for example, industrial parks, which manage the infrastructure necessary for business activities, such as industrial water, roads, and electricity. Considering this, a comprehensive flood risk assessment is required by the business. Therefore, in this study, to assess the flood risks according to the climate change, the risk assessment system considering the multiscale is suggested. To do that, first, mesoscale and microscale were defined and the assessment subjects and the spatial range of the assessment subject were established. Second, the assessment methods in each spatial unit were selected. The assessment method can be varied depending on the assessment goal and the spatial range, and the risk assessment in the mesoscale used the concepts of vulnerability and hazard and the risk assessment in the microscale used the concepts of probability and the consequence. Third, the data were built through the site survey, expert consultation, climate scenario, in-depth interview with the interested persons, and by collecting the damage data by the flood in the actual enterprise and industrial park. The flood risk in the enterprise was assessed finally by aggregating them with risk matrix after assessing each risk in the mesoscale and microscale. Since this assessment system considers diverse environments related to the enterprise and the characteristics of the enterprises, it can be used as useful assessment tool to reduce the actual flood risks in the enterprise. This study suggested the flood risk assessment system in the multiscale and applied it. Considering the business type, four enterprises, which required the flood risk assessment were selected. The selected enterprises are the power plant, the manufacturer of electronic component, the EPS manufacturer, and the pulp and paper manufacturer. In the mesoscale, the hazard and the vulnerability was assessed based on the index and each assessment results were aggregated to risk matrix after rating them. The indexes were listed from the preceding researches and the vulnerability indexes were selected after consulting and questionnaire survey with experts such as experts of climate change and industry sector, enterprise officers, local government, which controls the enterprises, Human Resources Development Service of Korea, Korea Industrial Complex Corporation. The hazard assessment indexes were selected through the literature review and by collecting the actual damage data by the flood in the industrial park and enterprise. The hazard and the vulnerability were assessed with five grades by industrial park, and the risks of industrial park where four enterprises are located in the Mesoscale were assessed by illustrating the assessment results in the risk matrix. The final assessment results were classified into safe level (1st grade), normal level (2nd grade) and dangerous level (3rd grade). The power plant was assessed as normal level both for present and future. The manufacturer of electronic component was assessed as safe level in the present and the near future and was assessed as normal level in 2050s showing that there will be increase of risk. The EPS manufacturer was assessed as normal level both for present and future, and the pulp and paper manufacturer was assessed as normal level both for present and future. In the microscale, the flood risks were listed up through the literature review, damage case collection, and three potential risks, which can occur in the enterprise, were selected. For the risks selected, the probability and the consequence were assessed with five grades using the data of in-depth interview with enterprise officers, collected damage data, inundation trace map of the subject area. Each assessed results were classified into safe level (1st grade), normal level (2nd grade) and dangerous level (3rd grade) by illustrating them in the risk matrix. For the power plant, Risk 1, Risk 2 and Risk 3 were assessed as dangerous level, normal level and safe level, respectively. For the manufacturer of electronic component, Risk 1 was assessed as safe level, and Risk 2 and Risk 3 were assessed as normal level. In case of EPS manufacturer, Risk 1, Risk 2 and Risk 3 were assessed as safe level, normal level and dangerous level, respectively. And in case of pulp and manufacturer, Risk 1 and Risk 3 were assessed as safe level and Risk 2 was assessed as dangerous level. All these are the results assessed based on the current status of facilities and the management in the enterprise. The comprehensive flood risks in the enterprise were assessed by illustrating the assessment results in the microscale and mesoscale in the risk matric again. Although in the mesoscale, the climate change was considered, since in the microscale, it is hard to reflect the changes in the enterprise by the climate change and the investment in the facilities and installations considering the climate change is not certain, it was assessed based on the present. Therefore, in the mesoscale, the present and the future were indicated and the present value in the microscale was applied to each of them. Once the business is established, it is assumed that there will be no change in facilities except for partial repair and replacement

therefore, risk assessment results on the macroscale and microscale are compared within one matrix. For the power plant, Risk 1, Risk 2 and Risk 3 were assessed as dangerous level, normal level and safe level, respectively. For the manufacturer of electronic component, Risk 1 was assessed as safe level, and although Risk 2 and Risk 3 were currently assessed as safe level but were assessed to be changed to normal level in the future. As such, it was observed the change in the enterprise's flood risks according to the future climate change when the enterprise operates the facilities and installations considering the flood with the same criteria as the present. The data in this study were built by collecting them from the more than two times of in-depth interview with the enterprise officers, damage cases of the enterprise by the flood, damage cases in the area where the enterprise is located, interview with the local government related to the enterprise and various administrative organizations. These data are easy to be used to reduce the damage by determining the degree of flood risks comprehensively, which can occur in the enterprise, In the results of examining the preceding researches, since the enterprise places the priority on the investment to increase the production performance rather than to prepare against the potential natural disaster by the future climate change, The research to assess the industry and the climate change, especially the relations between the enterprise and the climate change has not been sufficient. Therefore, it is expected that the enterprise's flood risk assessment method considering the multiscale would be used for risk management in the long-term aspect of enterprise.