Phenology model of Leptocorisa chinensis (Dallas) (Hemiptera: Alydidae)

Abstract

Leptocorisa chinensis (Hemiptera: Alydidae) is known to cause pecky rice by sucking rice panicles at the milking stage of rice in Japan. In Korea, L. chinensis occurs only on Jeju Island, and in southern coastal area, and its damage to rice has not been reported yet. However, if L. chinensis expands northward and increases its abundance under global warming, it may become an important rice pest. To understand changes of its status in the future, a phenology model of L. chinensis was developed in this study. For this model, immigration model of overwintered adult L. chinensis was constructed based on literature information. In addition, development and oviposition models of L. chinensis were developed by conducting experiments. The phenology model was validated using field occurrence data of L. chinensis in 2015. Phenology of L. chinensis in the present and future were compared to understand effects of global warming to L. chinensis under the representative concentrated pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario using the phenology model of L. chinensis. The 50 % immigration time of overwintered adults moved forward from Julian day 179 in 2015 to 172 in 2050s, and 159 in 2090s. The generation number increased from three in 2015, and 2050s to four in 2070s, and 2090s. The peak abundance time of adults moved forward from Julian day 269 in 2015 to 260 in 2090s