Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia: Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Central Asia for 2010-2013

Abstract

The thesis research analyses the impact of CU of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia on trade flows in Central Asia, in terms of trade creation or trade diversion. The current paper used the same methodology and objectives as the previous research paper on the identical topic with an aim to see how the trade flows of Kazakhstan has been changed in terms of volume to corresponding exporting and importing partner. However, the major differences between two studies are seen in different commodity composition, trade partners (EC was added), and in analyzing larger time series. So, the contributions of the current thesis consist of recalculating the trade effect for 2010 and 2011, as well as updating the influence of CU on trade of Kazakhstan for 2012 and 2013. It was found that unlike previous identical research paper, the trade change in Central Asia are basically in transport, metals, agricultural products and textile. However, the trade in energy was attributed to exogenous shock in international market for the energy products. Given paper also provides with quick analysis of the Customs Union impact on other economic variables in Kazakhstan.