바다로 나가는 龍: 海洋領土紛爭에 對한 中國 政府의 態度와 行動 分析

Abstract

Dragons Ascension to the Sea: An Analysis on the stance and behaviours of Chinese government toward the maritime territorial disputes

Yeong Ik Kim Graduate School of International Studies Seoul National University

The dragon has begun its ascension. Contradicting her own foreign policy, China does not seek regional hegemony or a sphere of influence, China is striving to expand her sphere of influence, fortifying her international status as Super power. After the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2008, Chinese foreign policy, especially the territorial policies, seemed like has been changed as her international role has altered. China started to insist that rest of the world should respect Chinas core interests, while revising her famous foreign policy hide ones capacities and bide ones time (tao guang yang hui, 韜光養晦). Since that time, Chinese government has been emphasising on the importance of territorial issues. China has been taking more tough actions and more assertive stances than signals of compromise on the territorial disputes with her neighbour countries, particularly on the maritime territorial disputes. Sometimes China makes strong tone of statements and sometimes she sends coast guard ships or warships to controversial sea area, the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and several reefs and rocks in South China Sea for instance. However, it is not true that China always takes the same protocols toward the territorial disputes. She has several cards in hand to cope with her counterparts and plays the most effective card accordingly. For example, there are huge differences between Chinas actions toward Japan or Vietnam and actions to Mongolia or North Korea. To counterparts with enough military capability to stand against China, she willingly use force to her opponent. When it comes to deal with less strong neighbour, China often attempts to resolve the dispute in a peaceful way. Given those situations, the purpose of this study is to answer these questions: Will China uses the assertive way consistently? What makes China take such actions towards the maritime territorial disputes? In order to answer to these questions, this research will focus on the Chinas changed stance on the territorial disputes from 2010 to 2014, mainly on the maritime territorial issues via analysing her actions and attitudes. As for the methodology and framework, two particular cases within Senkaku/Diaoyu Island dispute have been deliberately chosen: Diplomatic tension over fishermen arrest

and Japanese Nationalisation. Along with Chronological Analysis, content analysis method has been used to analyse the actions taken by Chinese government and its counterpart. This study is based on the statistical data derived from official statements announced by both Chinese government and its counterpart in order to process the research with neutrality. Analysis based on the content analysis and chronological analysis shows several fascinating findings. First, China has no intention to compromise or yield on the issues related to its core interests: 1) the sovereignty

2) national security

3) development and benefits

4) territorial integration

5) peaceful development. Second, given aforementioned reason, Chinese government sticks to uncompromising policy toward the maritime territorial disputes in most of the occasion. Third, Chinese government tend to take hawkish actions both toward relatively strong counterpart and neighbour country which has fatal weakness to China. According to the results of this research, Chinese foreign policy has not been altered but changed its behaviours during financial crisis 2008-2009, where it struck most of western countries, providing them with more issue than South and East China Seas to concern. Chinese behaviours on the maritime territorial dispute became more assertive. With her new stance, China takes proactive attitudes and firm actions toward the maritime territorial disputes under the slogan of protect the core interests. To resolve a series of maritime disputes, Chinese government implements different strategies toward each opposing countries: announcing strong statements

conducting military exercise

sending naval forces

and even evoking anti-counterpart rally among Chinese people. So far, China always gets what she wants to in maritime disputes and Chinas large domestic market and plentiful rare-earth materials guarantee her temporary triumph in disputes. Contrary to previous situations, China may have to face the new and the more harsh conditions when she deals with neighbouring countries by these factors: domestic politics, relatively slowdown of economic growth and enhanced counterparts.