Denuclearization after Kim Jong-il's Death and the Chicken Game in Northeast Asia 2012-2014

Abstract

After the passing of Kim Jong-il in December 2011, the new presidency under his son, Kim Jong-un was under scrutiny. Scholars and practitioners alike debated whether there are chances that he would direct policies of the DPRK in a more cooperative, norm-abiding path that will put an end to the nuclear issue in the Peninsula, or that it would live up to the legacy of nuclear diplomacy that has secured the regime survival for three generations thus far. Coinciding with the leadership transitions also taking place in China, Japan and the ROK, this paper seeks to examine the prospect and solution for nuclear talks within the Six Parties in Northeast Asia, specifically on why pursuing the policy to denuclearize the DPRK will not result to progress in negotiations itself, using the framework of Chicken game.

Keywords: North Korea, denuclearization, Chicken game, game theory, Kim Jong-un, Northeast Asia