A Study on the Correlations between South Korea and U.S. Aid to North Korea and North Korean Provocation: The Case of Military Provocation, Nuclear Test and Missile Launch between 1998 and 2012

Abstract

This thesis explores and seeks to find correlations between South Korean and the United States aid to North Korea and North Korean threats focusing on military provocations towards South Korea and missile and nuclear tests from 1998 to 2012 since North Korean military provocations, missile launches and nuclear tests have been continued despite the South Korean government and the United States governments pursuit of either engagement policy or containment policy. It attempts to find instances where the aid from South Korea and the United States positively and successfully induced behavior change in North Korea by applying the framework settled in accordance to the definition and purpose of the aid, which is based on the idea that a receiving country would change its behavior if a sending country provides aid. In order to find correlations between South Korean and the United States aid to North Korea and North Korean provocation, this paper lists each provocation that occurred between 1998 and 2012 and analyzes both aid volume and the fluctuation of the aid from the previous year towards North Korea from South Korea and the United States as well as North Koreas response on the aid provided by South Korea and the United States. Both North Korean military provocations and nuclear and missile tests between 1998 and 2012 occurred regardless of the aid transferred by South Korea and the United States, thus, South Korean aid and the United States aid towards North Korea does not affect lead to behavior change in North Korea based on the given framework. However, this research also shows that North Korean military provocation or nuclear and missile tests were more likely to occur when South Korea and the United States reduced their aid volume compared to that of the previous year, suspended aid, and when the aid volume was below the average. Indeed, this study concludes that military provocation is more correlated to the South Korean aid than the United States aid, and nuclear tests and missile launches are more correlated to the United States aid than South Korean aid. Nonetheless, the reduction of aid volume is due to the treacherous behavior of North Korea despite the assistance of South Korea and the United States when looking at the issues thoroughly, and North Korea is focused more on the United States aid than the South Korean aid.