Social Protection in Asia: Cluster Analysis of the Disaggregated Social Protection Index

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to cluster the countries in Asia based on their social protection. For that end, the Social Protection Index has been disaggregated into different indicators. This has previously been impossible but due to the Asian Development Banks data collection, this has now become available, and thus used in this thesis. It is important for researchers and policy makers alike to understand and learn from the countries in Asia. It is also important to extend the scope beyond East Asia and look at Asia in its entirety. The database contains detailed information on social protection in most countries of Asia. In order to use the index for clustering purposes, it has been disaggregated into three indicators. Firstly, it measures the coverage of social protection. Secondly, it measures the average expenditure per beneficiary adjusted to the relative poverty line. Finally, it measures gender spending by dividing the total amount of social protection spent on women by the total amount spent on men. The three indicators serves as the variables in a hierarchical cluster analysis using Wards method. The results for the cluster analysis is displayed through dendrograms that are further analyzed, in order to cluster the countries over time.

At first all cases are clustered into two clusters, a High-Performing Cluster and a Low-Performing Cluster. Further within these clusters the worst- and best performing clusters are identified for each year. The countries that move between the high and low performing clusters are given special attention, to understand why they move. Moreover, over the three years the results are generalized, and the analysis partially reinforce the clusters geographical belongingness, with one or more exceptions per area.

Further, this study explores the importance of coverage, gender spending, and depth: both in terms of justice, and in societal outcome. It shows how depth only can be understood through the coverage indicator. Thus, it also serves as critique to the Social Protection Index, which do not take this into account. The results also shed light on the importance of gender spending. It shows that although the other indicators may not be improving, the gender spending indicator account for some of the major changes throughout the years analyzed. Finally, the thesis suggests a way forward for social protection in region. It also suggests a global data collection mechanism in order to both expand the scope of countries, but also to enable researchers to look over a longer time period.