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The Epistemic Structure of Economics Models and the Problem of Confirmation : 경제 모형의 인식적 구조와 입증 문제

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dc.contributor.advisor한성일-
dc.contributor.author김진숙-
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-27T17:09:55Z-
dc.date.available2017-10-27T17:09:55Z-
dc.date.issued2017-08-
dc.identifier.other000000146531-
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10371/137121-
dc.description학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 인문대학 철학과, 2017. 8. 한성일.-
dc.description.abstractWe propose that confirmation on economics models has a distinctive two-layered espistemic structure. That is, we analyze that the econometrician as the outside observer interferes with the very model she is observing. We further argue that, due to this structure and the impossibility of knowing the true probability distribution, the Market Selection Hypothesis (MSH) is not directly confirmable from data. We provide a formal proof of this result in the framework of a Bayesian confirmation model.-
dc.description.tableofcontents1 Introduction 1
2 Confirmation Theory: Conditional Probability and Evidence 6
2.1 Carnapian vs. Bayesian Confirmation Theory 8
2.2 Conditional Probability and Modes of Supposition 11
2.2.1 The Primitive: Conditional vs. Unconditional Probability 11
2.2.2 The Modes of Supposition in Bayesian Confirmation 14
2.3 Confirmation and Evidence 17
2.3.1 Two Probabilistic Conditions for Confirmation 18
2.3.2 Epistemic Condition for Confirmation 21
3 The Market Selection Hypothesis (MSH) and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) 25
3.1 The Concept of Rational Expectations 29
3.2 The Epistemic Structure of Economics Models under the Rational Expectations 34
3.2.1 The Epistemic Structure of Economics Models 34
3.2.2 Applications of the Analysis on the Epistemic Structure to Two Theses under Rational Expectations 37
3.3 The Market Selection Model 41
3.3.1 Notations and Basics 42
3.3.2 Belief Selection in the Complete Market 43
4 The Epistemic Structure of Economics Models and the Problem of Confirmation 46
4.1 The Outline of the Argument . 46
4.2 True Belief, True Probability, and the True Data-Generating Process 50
4.2.1 Kinds of Probabilities and their Representations 51
4.2.2 Cogley, et. al. Model and the True Data-Generating Process . 54
4.2.3 What Kinds of Probabilities are Involved in the TDGP? 57
4.3 Do We Know the True Process? 58
4.3.1 DGP and the Frequentist Position 59
4.3.2 DGP and the Calibrationist Position 64
4.3.3 Remarks on the Discussions of Probabilistic Knowledge 67
4.4 The MSH and the Problem of Confirmation 69
4.4.1 Bayesian Confirmation Model 69
4.4.2 The Model for Confirmation Impossibility of the MSH 71
5 Knowledge and the Implications of the Confirmation Impossibility of the MSH 90
5.1 A Solution to the Internal Problem of the MSH 91
5.2 The MSH and Accuracy Model 93
6 Conclusion 97
References 103		-
dc.formatapplication/pdf-
dc.format.extent896722 bytes-
dc.format.mediumapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subject입증 경제 모형 인식적 구조 베이즈주의-
dc.subject.ddc100-
dc.titleThe Epistemic Structure of Economics Models and the Problem of Confirmation-
dc.title.alternative경제 모형의 인식적 구조와 입증 문제-
dc.typeThesis-
dc.description.degreeDoctor-
dc.contributor.affiliation인문대학 철학과-
dc.date.awarded2017-08-
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