Analyzing Price Stabilization Effects of Government Sugar Programs: Pre- and Post-NAFTA
정부 설탕 정책의 가격 안정성 효과 분석: NAFTA를 통한 시장개방 전후를 중심으로

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dc.description학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 농업생명과학대학 농경제사회학부, 2017. 8. 김관수.-
dc.description.abstractThis paper measures the price stabilization effects of the U.S. sugar programs in the midst of complete sugar market liberalization with Mexico under the NAFTA. Previous research reveals that market liberalization in terms of opening a domestic market can either stabilize or increase the volatility of the domestic prices depending on the characteristics of market liberalization. In this regard, we measure the effectiveness of three sugar program pillars (marketing allotments, price support, and tariff rate quota) on mean price and volatility separately. Given the possibility of time-varying volatility reflected by the heteroscedasticity of the error terms, we utilize the Generalized Least Squares model to the U.S. raw cane sugar market, based on monthly data for the period of FY1991-FY2016. The estimation results indicate that the price volatility was exceptionally widened during the NAFTA as it is further evidenced by relatively high value of coefficient of variation. We found that price support through loan program performed as a price shifter while the elimination of import quotas on Mexican sugar weakened the price stabilization effects of the program.-
dc.description.tableofcontents1. Introduction 1

2. An Overview of the United States Sugar Market and Policy 4
2.1 The Global Market for Sugar: production, consumption, and trade 4
2.2 A History of U.S. Sugar Program 9
2.3 U.S. Sugar Policy Instruments 11
2.3.1 Price Supports through Loan Program 11
2.3.2 Domestic Marketing Allotments 13
2.3.3 Tariff Rate Import Quota (TRQ) 15
2.3.4 Feedstock Flexibility Program 19

3. U.S.-Mexico Sugar Market Liberalization 20
3.1 U.S. Sugar Market Liberalization 20
3.2 Impact of NAFTA on U.S and Mexico Sugar Markets 23
3.3 Suspension Agreements on Sugar from Mexico 25

4. Pricing Models and Data 26
4.1 Basic Pricing Model with Stock and the Government Program 26
4.2 Additional Consideration for Raw Cane Sugar Price Model 28
4.3 Empirical Methods 30
4.4 Data 37

5. Estimation Results 41
5.1 Empirical Results for Raw Cane Sugar Equation 41
5.2 Discussion 46

6. Concluding Remarks 48

References 52
국문초록 58
Appendix 61
Appendix 1. Expected Volatility (E(σ ̂_t^2)) of U.S. Raw Cane Sugar Prices, Oct 1991–Dec 2016 61
dc.format.extent1054034 bytes-
dc.publisher서울대학교 대학원-
dc.subjectPrice Stabilization Effect-
dc.subjectU.S. Sugar Program-
dc.titleAnalyzing Price Stabilization Effects of Government Sugar Programs: Pre- and Post-NAFTA-
dc.title.alternative정부 설탕 정책의 가격 안정성 효과 분석: NAFTA를 통한 시장개방 전후를 중심으로-
dc.contributor.affiliation농업생명과학대학 농경제사회학부-
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College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (농업생명과학대학)Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (농경제사회학부)Theses (Master's Degree_농경제사회학부)
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