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A Study on Oil Price Asymmetry, Exchange Rate and External Balances in Nigeria.

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Authors
Monday Jerry Ikponmwosa
Advisor
Heo Eunnyeong
Major
공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공
Issue Date
2018-02
Publisher
서울대학교 대학원
Keywords
Asymmetric Oil Price ShocksARDLExternal BalancesLong Run Relationship.
Description
학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2018. 2. Heo Eunnyeong.
Abstract
원유수급은 세계경제에서 가장 중요한 거시 경제 지표 중 하나이며 원유 시장은 세계에서 가장 큰 원자재 시장이다. 현재 나이지리아의 경제는 원유 생산량에 의존하고 있으며 특히 원유 수출을 통한 외화 획득에 크게 영향을 받고 있다. 본 논문은 비대칭적인 유가 충격과 환율의 나이지리아국제(무역)수지에 대한 영향을 분석하기 위한 실증 연구이다. 무역 수지, 석유 생산 및 수출, 유가 증권의 가격, 환율 변동에 대한 정보는 정부와 정책 입안자들의 의사 결정에 중요한 변수가 된다. 본 논문에서는 유가 충격, 환율, 총 무역 수지 및 석유와 비석유의 실물 무역수지를 활용하였으며, 모델 내 변수 간의 단기 및 장기 관계를 확인하기 위해 자기회귀시차분포(ARDL)분석법이 채택되었다. 실증분석에서 얻어진 결과는 양(+)의 고유가가 나이지리아의 총 무역수지와 단기 무역수지에긍정적으로 작용했다는 것을 보여 준다. 반면, 장기적 관계에서는 동일한 효과가 발견되지 않았으며, 이는 석유 수출의 수익 증가가 기여한 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 음(-)의 고유가는 나이지리아의 총 무역 수지와석유 무역 수지에긍정적으로 작용한 것으로 밝혀졌으며, 원유수입 국가의 수요 효과(수량 효과)에 의한 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 따라서, 양(+)의 유가 인상의 긍정적인 영향이 장기적인 무역수지흑자로 직결되지는 않는다는 점을 감안할 때 나이지리아의 국가 발전 전략은 예상되는 유가 상승에 전적으로 의존하는 것을 지양해야 할 것이다.
Crude oil also known as black gold is a crucial macroeconomic indicator as far as the global market is concerned and the crude oil international market without doubt is one of the biggest commodity market in the world. At present, the Nigerian economy depends on crude oil production and export as its main foreign exchange earner. In our study, an empirical analysis was carried out geared towards establishing how asymmetric oil price movements and exchange rate affect Nigerias external balances. Information on trade balances, oil production and export, asymmetric oil price shocks, exchange rate amongst other things will enable the Government and policy makers to be proactive in decision-making. The ARDL cointegration approach was employed to establish the short term and long-term relationship between variables in our model. The variables used in the empirical analysis include positive oil price movements, negative oil price movements, exchange rate, real oil trade balance, real non-oil trade balance and total trade balance. The results obtained from empirical analysis show that positive oil price shocks was beneficial to Nigerias oil trade balance and total trade balance in the short run. However, this short run positive impact did not translate to the long run. This effect can be attributable to revenue effect as a result of increases in proceeds from oil export. Negative oil price movements was discovered to be beneficial to Nigerias total trade balance and oil trade balance in the long term. The reason for this is due to the demand effect (quantity effect) from countries that import oil. The negative revenue effect occasioned by decreases in oil prices is being overshadowed by increasing demand from those nations that depend on oil import. The implication of this for policy making is that the Nigerian government have to encourage investors to develop more oil fields in order to maximize production, which can help grow the oil trade balance and total trade balance in times of oil boom since we saw from empirical analysis that Nigerias total balance and real oil trade balance are both responsive to positive oil price movements in the short term. On the contrary, during the period of bust in oil prices
in order for the economy not be trapped in the problem of revenue shortages in terms of foreign exchange earnings which is evident during periods of low oil prices (and can linger for a very long time), resource rich nations like Nigeria should have policies in place that will make it expedient for any Government in power to pursue the diversification of the economy by investing in and developing other areas of our economy
for instance, like manufacturing, agriculture, services, infrastructural development etc. which can help cushion the effect of low foreign exchange earnings from oil export in times of low oil prices. For it to be possible for the government to diversify the economy, It will be plausible and wise for saving funds to be created (like the Sovereign wealth fund, natural resources fund and the stabilization fund) which should be used for immediate investment in the real sector with a view to minimizing the negative economic effects of bust in oil prices.
Language
English
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/141589
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College of Engineering/Engineering Practice School (공과대학/대학원)Program in Technology, Management, Economics and Policy (협동과정-기술·경영·경제·정책전공)Theses (Master's Degree_협동과정-기술·경영·경제·정책전공)
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