The Birth of Bias: On Subjective Realization of Uncertainty in the Sequential Decision-Making
편향의 탄생: 순차적 의사결정에서 주관적 불확실성 인식의 연구
- 사회과학대학 경제학부
- Issue Date
- 서울대학교 대학원
- Judgment under Uncertainty; Bayesian Inference; Frequentist Inference; Hindsight Bias; Confirmation Bias; Cognitive Dissonance
- 학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 사회과학대학 경제학부, 2018. 2. 이인호.
- Since Heuristics and Biases program by Kahneman and Tverksy, many so-called fallacies and biases are discovered and coined by social scientists. Most of studies in the program utilize Bayesian statistics as the normative standard of human behavior. However critics like Gigerenzer have argued that the program is fundamentally flawed because of the normative use of Bayesian statistics. Empirical research point that the human mind tends to understand probability as frequency while subjective belief on single event was assumed in the program. To sublimate the conflict, I introduce concept of subjective realization of uncertainty (SRUF) and parametrize it as a continuous variable. The more an agent realizes a probability of uncertain domain as frequency, the greater the SRUF is. Further, it is assumed that human mind tends to exaggerate likelihood of past observations retrospectively. This hypothetical behavior is called, over-recall in this research. In the model, magnitude of the over-recall depends on the decision makers SRUF. It is shown that with the simple model of over-recall, a Bayesian decision-maker might behave as some biases predict. Illusory correlation, hindsight bias, and confirmation bias are mainly investigated. A model of updating SRUF is also constructed. It is derived that the model can predict behavioral aspects of cognitive dissonance theory as well.