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Spatiotemporal Seismic Risk Assessment of Wood-frame Houses in Victoria, Canada under M9 Megathrust Subduction Sequences

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Authors

Zhang, Lizhong; Goda, Katsuichiro

Issue Date
2019-05-26
Citation
13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering(ICASP13), Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019
Abstract
This study assesses spatiotemporal seismic risk of a realistic portfolio of wood-frame houses in the City of Victoria, British Colombia, Canada, subjected to a M9 sequence of earthquakes originating from the Cascadia subduction zone in Pacific Northwest. Crustal aftershocks, triggered by the mega-thrust mainshock, may occur in much proximity to population and buildings, and different types of buildings may be affected due to different ground-motion characteristics. The developed time-dependent seismic risk model consists of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model, ground-motion model, and aftershock seismic fragility model. The seismic hazard model for synthetic mainshock-aftershock sequences is combined with the state-dependent fragility model to estimate time-dependent damage states of wood-frame houses. The output of the assessment is useful for making various risk management decisions more effectively.
Language
English
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/153273
DOI
https://doi.org/10.22725/ICASP13.047
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