Modeling the Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems under Uncertainty

Abstract

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of uncertain interdependencies on the resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. Existing models for analyzing interdependent infrastructures do not account for the underlying uncertainties in the strength and type of interdependent relations. Taking these into account, this paper proposes a probabilistic framework to assess the serviceability of interdependent infrastructures. A preliminary analysis is presented focused on the uncertainty of physical interdependencies. The case study reveals that the strength of a physical interdependency increases as the distance between the interconnected components increases. Accounting for the uncertainty in the interdependencies results in larger differences in the mean functionality of network components as the physical interdependency strength increases.