Dynamic Risk Assessment of Resilient Infrastructure Systems under Uncertain Conditions

Abstract

This paper proposes an adaptive risk management for civil infrastructure system in a dynamic stochastic environment, aimed at improving the ability of the system to adapt to changing conditions in the future. The proposed methodology is developed based on a rolling-horizon (RH) approach to (a) increase computational efficiency, (b) reduce uncertainties in the prediction of evolving conditions in the future, and (c) implement over an uncertain or infinite time horizon. The proposed RH-based adaptive risk management is applied to a decision problem where a hypothetical residential community in Kathmandu, Nepal is exposed to earthquake hazard as well as multiple evolving conditions. The results show that the proposed risk management significantly reduces the uncertainties in the prediction of the dynamic conditions and mitigates seismic risk to the community over time.