Resilience Informed Performance Assessment of Infrastructure Systems

Abstract

Over the recent decade increased research efforts have been directed on the modeling of resilience of infrastructure systems in their context, i.e. as socio-technical systems. The present paper presents a generic resilience model framework for the support of design and integrity management of such systems. The starting point is the general system representation framework by JCSS (2008) with special consideration of the modeling of uncertainties and dependencies. Furthermore, the evolution of the performance, together with the expected value of benefits and losses, as well as the capacity of infrastructure systems over time is described. On this basis the resilience modeling is formulated considering the performances of and the interactions between infrastructure systems, the organization responsible for integrity management and regulations. Finally, an example is presented considering the modeling and analysis of the resilience of one wind turbine park for the purpose of optimizing resilience management. Parameter studies are presented illustrating how the resilience performance may be optimized by means of adjusting the reliability of subsystems as well as through allocation of income for coverage of costs of future inspections, maintenance and renewal works. Moreover, it is illustrated how performance relevant indicators such as the down time and the stock keeping of essential spare parts can be assessed through the proposed resilience analysis framework.