Probabilistic Methodology for Terrorism Blast Risk Assessment

Abstract

In this study, a probabilistic methodology has been developed to quantify terrorism blast risk for buildings. Concept of protection zones, which are zones in building with varying level of security, has been introduced based on the principle - as security increases the probable size of bomb should decrease. Probable bombs are uniformly placed at each protection zone to create many possible scenarios of terrorism event. Blast parameters (pressure and impulse) are estimated at many locations in 3D model of building for each scenario using a modified Kingery and Bulmash (KB) blast model called KB beta model. The United States Department of Defenses Pressure - Impulse damage curves are used to convert blast parameters to damage. The average damage to the building is estimated based on aggregation of damages to the building components. The methodology is applied to investigate the recent Brussels airport attack incident and the results are compared with actual Brussels Airport Attack. The terrorism-blast risk assessment shows that the attack could have been worse.