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Economic feasibility of REDD project for preventing deforestation in North Korea
북한 산림전용 방지수단으로서의 REDD 사업의 경제적 타당성 연구

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Authors
조장환
Advisor
윤여창
Major
산림과학부(산림환경학전공)
Issue Date
2012-02
Publisher
서울대학교 대학원
Description
학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 산림과학부(산림환경학전공), 2012. 2. 윤여창.
Abstract
This study is aimed to assess the economic feasibility of the REDD project in North Korea by estimating the potential carbon credits and the cost of REDD project. The REDD potential credits of North Korea is estimated based on the changes of forest area and population from 1990 to 2010, and the cost of REDD project is estimated indirectly by annual land opportunity cost of agriculture. When the 25% GHG reduction scenario was applied to the deforestation in North Korea, the potential REDD credits were estimated to be 4,232million~5,290million for 20 years. It would amount to 28~35% of South Korea's medium-term greenhouse gas reduction target. On the other hand, the break-even price of REDD project, which its profit can be obtained as the same as the agriculture net revenue in the deforestated lands in North Korea, was estimated to be 19.19$/ when the non-permanence risk of forest conservation is assumed to be 20%. This price is higher than the price of REDD carbon credit 5$/ recorded in the international voluntary carbon market in 2010. This indicates that REDD project in North Korea lacks economic feasibility. However, REDD projects could provide co-benefits to the society besides mitigation. As previous studies indicate, the break-even price is lower than the social marginal cost of greenhouse gas emissions due to deforestation, 20$/ are estimated by Deveny et al.(2009). Thus, it can be argued that REDD in North Korea can be socially feasible. The economic feasibility of REDD project in North Korea can be largely determined by the risk premium assumed. Thus, North Korean REDD project needs a strong guarantee by the government and involvement of people in order to assure the economic feasibility.
Language
eng
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10371/154988

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College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (농업생명과학대학)Dept. of Forest Sciences (산림과학부)Theses (Master's Degree_산림과학부)
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