S-Space College of Medicine/School of Medicine (의과대학/대학원) Internal Medicine (내과학전공) Journal Papers (저널논문_내과학전공)
SOURCE: A Registry-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Oesophageal or Gastric Cancer
- van den Boom, Hector G.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; ter Veer, Emil; van Kleef, Jessy Joy; Lordick, Florian; Stahl, Michael; Ajani, Jaffer A.; Guimbaud, Rosine; Park, Se Hoon; Dutton, Susan J.; Bang, Yung-Jue; Boku, Narikazu; Mohammad, Nadia Haj; Sprangers, Mirjam A. G.; Verhoeven, Rob H. A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.; van Oijen, Martijn G. H.; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W. M.
- Issue Date
- Cancers, Vol.11 No.2, p. 187
- prediction model; oesophageal cancer; gastric cancer; metastasis; Cox regression; Delphi consensus
- Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005-2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making.
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