Analysis on the decision-making process for petrochemical industry development in the case of Kazakhstan

Abstract

카자흐스탄의 경제에서 부존 석유가스자원 및 석유가스 생산업의 중요성은 매우 크다. 2016년 카자흐스탄 석유가스산업은 GDP의 10.4 % 를 차지하고 있다. 그러나 엄청난 부존자원에도 불구하고 자국내 정유 및 석유화학산업시설의 부족으로 석유화학제품 수요의 94%는 수입에 의존하고 있다(Yakubovskaya, 2010). 이에 카자흐스탄 정부는 경제다양화를 위한 산업혁신개발프로그램(State Program of Industrial and Innovative Development)의 일환으로 국내 석유화학산업의 개발 계획을 발표한 바 있다. 본 연구에서는 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) 기법을 활용하여 카자흐스탄 국내 석유화학산업의 효과적이고 효율적인 개발을 위한 의사결정구조를 연구하여 카자흐스탄 정부의 석유화학산업 개발과정에 기초자료를 제공하고자 한다. 연구에서는 먼저 문헌조사 및 전문가 자문을 통하여 10개의 주요 요인을 도출한 후 이를 다시 경제, 기술 및 규제 등 3개 분류로 나누었다. 설문 대상은 카자흐스탄 정부 내 석유가스산업 관계공무원과 산업계의 산업개발 전문가 등 2개 그룹으로 나누어 설문을 진행하여 두 그룹간의 의사결정구조를 비교하였다. 또한 COVID-19로 인하여 의사결정에 변화가 있을지에 대한 추가 설문도 진행하였다. 설문결과 foreign direct investments, commercial competitiveness, technology transfer, and infrastructure development 등이 가장 중요한 요소로 선정되었다. 그룹별로는 정부 공무원은 경제 분야의 요소를 강조한 반면, 산업계 전문가들은 기술적 요소들을 강조하였다. 그러나 두 그룹 모두 투자 (foreign direct investments) 요소를 가장 중요하게 평가하였다. 한편 COVID-19 사태로 인한 의사결정 변화는 없는 것으로 분석되었다.

The main value of the Kazakhstan economy is in its oil and gas reserves and production. Kazakhstans Oil and gas industry share in total GDP was 10.4 % in 2016, according to the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. However, despite huge reserves of hydrocarbons, 94 % of the countrys needs for petrochemical products are imported (Yakubovskaya, 2010). This indicates a high potential for the development of the domestic petrochemical industry. Thus, Kazakhstan government announced the petrochemical industry as one of the key areas of development within the framework of the State Program of Industrial and Innovative Development. For efficient and effective development, however, elaborate research is needed on decision-making process for the development. This study aims to analyze the decision-making structure in Kazakhstan government, which defines the essential criteria for the petrochemical industry development. For the purpose of this study Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model was applied. Ten key factors were identified through extensive literature reviews and then were classified into three main criteria: economic, technical and regulatory criteria. For AHP survey, this study chose two groups of respondents, government officials and non-government sector experts, for the main and sub criteria. In addition, they were asked if they would change their opinion taking into account possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the next 5-10 years. Responses for the criteria were weighted and prioritized using AHP model, and answers from two groups were compared. Foreign direct investments, commercial competitiveness, technology transfer, and infrastructure development are found to be the top factors for petrochemical industry development in the context of Kazakhstan. While government officials gave weights more on economic factors, non-government experts gave more weights on technical factors. However, both groups agree that the foreign direct investments to be the most important factor. Moreover, all the respondents did not change their opinions regarding the question about possible influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the future industry development.