Impact of International System on Democratic Transitions: A Comparative Study between Democratization in Post-Cold War Serbia and Post-Arab Spring Libya

Abstract

This research investigates the impact of international system on the democratic transitions of Post- Cold War Serbia and Post-Arab Spring Libya. Adopting Steven Levitsky and Lucan Ways Linkage and Leverage model as an analytical point of departure, exogenous structural factors such as ties with the West and susceptibility to Western democratizing influence are assessed and compared in the two cases. The research suggests that nascent democracies such as Serbias are far more likely to succeed in a unipolar system where the West, as the global hegemonic force, opts to genuinely engage in active and persistent democracy promotion so long as it serves the Wests own interests. By contrast, more recent democratic transitions in cases such as Libyas, which transpired in an increasingly multipolar system with waning Western influence and the rising clout of authoritarian powers, must depend far more heavily on favorable domestic factors as well as local political dynamics in order to successfully democratize. Additionally, the study builds upon Levitsky and Ways framework by exploring the causality of linkage and leverage effects, which is brought about by change in polarity that is created in part by a shift in the US and Western foreign policy towards offshore balancing.