1992-2016 남북관계와 북·중관계 상호 변화의 비교적 분석

Abstract

This paper examines the changes of Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North relations in the post-Cold War era from 1992 to 2016 and comparatively analyzes the major factors of these changes. Through analysis of the trends and factors, this paper explores the internal relevance and mutual changes between these two relations, which aims to gain a better understanding on the Korean Peninsula issue and regionalism in the Northeast Asia. The research questions of this paper are as follows: (1)After the post-cold war how did Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North relations change from 1993 to 2016 and why did the trends of these changes show a different pattern when comparing to the trends during the Cold War period? and (2)What causes the mutual changes between these two relations and how did they internally connect and influence each other? To answer the research questions above, in chapter 2 this paper firstly reviews the background and trends of Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North Korean relations under the bipolar system during the Cold It is concluded that the Cold War system and ideological confrontation caused an inverse correlation between Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North Korean relations. In the 1950s, during the Korean War, China and North Korea established a blood alliance against the western capitalist group led by U.S. while the relationship between North and South Korea became more hostile. Due to the Sino-Soviet split and the change of Park Chung-hee regime's anti-communist policy in the 1960s and after, the Inter-Korean relations started to revive as Sino-North Korean relations worsened. The reason why these two relations showed an inverse correlation trend is that due to the fundamental confrontation and distrust in ideology and security between North and South Korea, North Korea had to adopted such a foreign policy, which is, establishing alliance with the Communist camp led by the Soviet Union and China in order to ensure its regime survival and security guarantee. Based on these reviews, in chapter 3 this paper focuses on how these two relations changed in the post-Cold War era from 1992 to 2016 and it separates the period into three parts: (1)In 1992-1997, with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of soviet communism, the world politics transitioned from unipolarity to multipolarity. The diplomatic opening between South Korea and China in 1992 led to a serious deterioration in Sino-North Korean relations while the swinging policy toward North Korea of Kim YoungSam Government aggravated the instability of Inter-Korean relations; (2)In 1998-2007, the Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North Korean relations showed an opposite trend in the field of economy and foreign affairs. With the implement of Sunshine Policy and The Policy of Peace and Prosperity, the Inter-Korean relations were improved based on the increasing economic cooperation and Inter-Korean talks in 2001-2002 and 2004-2005. Yet the two battles of Yeonpyeong, the second North nuclear crisis and the 2006 North Korean nuclear test has posed an increasingly dangerous and radical threat to the Inter-Korean relations. On the other hand, after the Iraq War and the NATO Bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade happened, North Korea and China considered the U.S. as a potential security threat and reached a consensus on promoting partner relationship in order to reduce the potential threats to security from the U.S. (3)In 2008-2016, new political and policy changes have taken place in North and South Korea. With the promotion of hard-line policy by Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye government and the strengthen nuclear strategy by the Kim Jong-un regime, economic cooperation and talks were cut off and the inrelation between the two countries was in a state of depression. Meanwhile, the partner relationship between North Korea and China has developed stably. However, the North Korea Nuclear problem keep posing a serious challenge to the Sino-North Korean relations, especially in 2013 and 2016. In chapter 4, this paper discusses the factors of these changes in Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North Korean relations. By dividing the factors into internal and external part, this paper suggests that the internal factors of Inter-Korean relations are a lack of consistency of South Koreas policy on North Korea, the increased security alertness due to the ceasefire agreement, the radical distrust which still exists and the North Korea Nuclear problem while for Sino-North Korean relations, the internal factors are the ideological conflicts on different socialism model and foreign policy, and also the North Korea Nuclear problem. In term of external factors, the common factor of these two relations is the Northeast strategy of U.S., specifically the ROK-US security alliance and the hostile policy against North Korea. It shows that the Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North Korea relations has a mutual changes under the influences of their common internal and external factors, which are the North Koreas nuclear issue and the U.S.s Northeast strategy. To strengthen its political gain and leading role in solving the issue of Korean peninsula, the U.S. contributed to enhance the legitimacy of ROK-US alliance in the post-Cold War era and adopted a strong policy against North-Korea based on its nuclear dispute, which led to a strong response from North Korea. Due to the increasing nuclear provocation by North Korea and the serious conflicts between North Korea and the U.S., the Inter-Korea relations were getting strained. On the other hand, to dominate the U.S.-China strategic competition and reduce its security threat, China protested U.S.s strong policies and restraint against North Korea and suggested the adoption of engagement policies on solving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. As a result, Chinas strategy developed the Sino-North Korean relations. As major regional and international issues, the trends of Inter-Korean relations and Sino-North Korean relations would greatly affect the regional order in Northeast Asia and world politics. This paper aims to lay the foundation for further research in form of comparison study on these two relations.