Energy Security and Responses to Climate Change in Selected East African countries

Abstract

요약 (Abstract) 현대화와 인구 증가로 인해 에너지 안보는 항상 전 세계 모든 국가의 관심사가되어 왔으며, 에너지 사용이 급격히 증가하고 사람들의 삶과 국가 경제가 에너지 사용에 의존하게되었다. 케냐는 전력에 대한 보편적 접근의 비전과 국가 경제 청사진인 비전 2030을 달성하기 위해 노력함에 따라 증가되는 전력 수요를 충족하기 위해 광범위한 확장의 필요에 직면 해 있다. 따라서 안정적인 전력공급을 위한 투자가 필수적이다. 이 연구는 케냐의 에너지 안보와 기후 변화에의 대응을 분석하고 지금까지 케냐 정부가 채택한 다양한 정책 및 제도적 전략을 다른 동 아프리카 국가와의 비교하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이 연구는 에너지 안보를 가용성, 경제성, 접근성, 수용 가능성 및 효율성 세부차원에서 분석하기 위해 에너지 보안 지수 (ESI) 모델을 적용하였다. 에너지 보안 지수 모델은 3 단계로 구성되며 각 지표별로 값을 계산하고 전체 보안지수를 종합 하는 방법이다. 이 연구를 기반으로 케냐 전력 산업의 정책 입안자, 의사 결정자 및 이해 관계자가 고려할 다음 정책 권장 사항이 제시되었다. 정부는 기후 변화에 영향을 미치는 예상되는 영향에 대처하기 위해 대체 및 재생 가능 에너지 자원의 점유율을 늘려야한다. 또한 전력의 지배적 원천 중 하나이며 공급의 안보를 강화 수력 발전에 지속적인 투자를 하여야 한다. 또한 특정 기술(자원)에 대한 의존도를 줄이고 에너지 믹스를 다양 화해야한다. 마지막으로 전력소비효율성을 증가시키는 다양한 형태의 소비부문 관리정책이 필요하다. 키워드 : 에너지 안보, 전력산업, 동아프리카 국가 학생 번호 : 2019-28114

Energy security has always been a concern for countries; with modernization and increasing population, the use of energy has increased rapidly, and peoples lives and national economies have become dependent on energy use. As Kenya strives to achieve its vision of universal access to electricity and Vision 2030, the national economic blueprint, the demand for electricity is evident. Therefore, the energy sector is facing extensive expansion to meet the projected electricity demand. It is imperative to invest in energy security. Initiatives must be taken in the energy sector to maintain a secure future and ensure necessary energy supply and proper distribution to support socialeconomic development in Kenya. This study will examine energy security and the impacts of climate change in Kenya, including the diverse policy and institutional strategies adopted by the Kenyan government to mitigate the impact of climate change on the populace and environment. The result of this study is expected to show the optimal option for the Kenyan power system to meet the future electricity demand of the country in the medium and long term, what the future electricity supply pathway for the country could be, and lastly, how each of the electricity supply pathways affects costs and the environment. The situation in Kenya is compared with the situation in selected East African countries. This study aims to identify the demand-supply gap in the electricity sector, devise integrated energy planning and implementation policies derived from the analysis, and finally, to analyze the short- and long-run relationship between energy security and environmental sustainability. i This study has applied the energy security index (ESI) model to analyze the availability, affordability, accessibility, acceptability, and efficiency dimensions of energy security. The energy security index model is constructed in three steps: calculation of value indicators, where the value of each matrix is calculated using related formulas to allow synthesis of the results from the multiple indicators. Normalization of indicators is done to all the scores or sets of scores to make data comparison more straightforward by scaling the scores between 0 and 1, where 0 characterizes the worst performance and 1 characterizes the best performance. The last step is evaluation. Some indicators show better results when lower, such as emission intensity, energy intensity and power distribution and losses. For supply security, diversification selfsufficiency, access to electricity and electricity consumption per capita, the higher the score, the better. Based on the study, the following policy recommendations are put forth for policymakers, decision makers and stakeholders in the Kenya electricity industry to consider: The government should increase its share of alternative and renewable energy resources to cope with the expected effects of climate change, which affect hydroelectric power generation, currently the dominant source of power, and increase the security of supply. The government should also diversify its energy mix to reduce dependency on a few technologies. Diversification will insulate the country from energy disruption and strengthen energy security. Lastly, the government should promote technology and efficiency innovations that are key for mitigating the expected effects of future climate change and improving energy security, and thus would likely serve as an engine of economic growth. ii Keywords: energy security, climate change, power sector, East African Countries. Student Number: 2019-28114