Relationship between Arctic Sea Ice in Autumn and Subsequent July Air Temperature over East Asia and the Western North Pacific

Abstract

We investigated the relationship between the Arctic sea ice area and the following year's atmospheric temperature using reanalysis data. The results demonstrate that the July air temperature at 850 hPa, observed over East Asia (EA) and Western North Pacific (WNP), shows a strong correspondence to the Arctic sea-ice area during the previous year's September-November period. This relation has been observed since 2007. A strong relationship between the air temperature and the Arctic sea ice is observed only when the sea ice area in autumn is smaller than approximately 6.3 million km(2). This threshold value coincides with the record reduction in the Arctic sea ice in the autumn of 2007. Sea surface temperature over the Northern Pacific also shows a similar correlation with the Arctic sea ice. The study of these correlations may provide a potential technique for seasonal prediction of July air temperature over EA and the WNP regions.