SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario –SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario providedby CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfallrunoffmodule, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximumoutflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs,design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value,cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data(1973∼2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1∼1,359.7 mm in the future (2011∼2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirscorresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstreamdue to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, whichmeans inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.